The Hispanic vote “was not decisive” in Trump’s victory, according to a Cervantes study

The Diplomat The Hispanic vote in the 2024 United States presidential election was not a "decisive factor" in Donald Trump's victory, according to a study by the Observatory of the Spanish Language and Hispanic Cultures of the Cervantes Institute at Harvard. The report "The Hispanic Vote in the 2024 United States Presidential Elections" was prepared by researchers Bruno Vega Hübner and Francisco Javier Pueyo Mena and examines the size, distribution, and participation of the Hispanic electorate in the United States by comparing census data, surveys, and exit polls. Likewise, it also takes into account their behavior based on variables such as home language, ancestry—with notable differences between Cubans, Mexicans, and Puerto Ricans—sex and age—with greater support for Republicans among young men—education, economic level, and religion. Hispanics are the largest minority in the United States, with a population that, according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates, exceeds 65 million and represents nearly 20 percent of the country's total population. In 2024, the number of Hispanics eligible to vote rose to 36.2 million, representing 14.7 percent of the total electorate—a historic figure. Therefore, considering that elections in the United States could come down to fewer than 100,000 votes in key states, the Hispanic community could "constitute a decisive group." However, the study highlights that, according to calculations based on the most commonly referenced estimates, the Hispanic vote "was not decisive" in Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 presidential election in any of the seven swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) or in the three states with the largest Hispanic populations (California, Florida, and Texas) and the greatest weight in the Electoral College system. In fact, it emphasizes that even in those states where Hispanic support for the Republican candidate was particularly high, such as Florida, the total absence of Hispanic votes "would not have reversed" the election result. "These findings contrast with the prevailing narrative in public opinion, since in the 2024 United States presidential elections, the Hispanic community received unprecedented media attention, both during the campaign and in post-election analyses," the study's authors note. Caution with “generalizations” For this reason, they call for a “cautious” analysis of this group's voting behavior, given that the Hispanic electorate's partisan preference is “linked to highly controversial issues, such as irregular immigration, deportation policies, language use, and crime.” “It is essential to avoid the spread of generalizations that lack solid empirical support but that contribute to the construction of a powerful public discourse,” the report adds. Furthermore, the researchers reaffirm that the Hispanic vote in the United States “is not homogeneous,” but rather varies according to multiple demographic and geographic factors, although it remains predominantly Democratic. However, all surveys conducted “show a significant redistribution” of the Hispanic vote in favor of the Republican Party. The study also reveals that the greatest support for the Republican Party is found among those over 50 years of age, while the most notable redistribution of the vote is observed among young people aged 18 to 29. and that Hispanic men show greater support for the Republican candidate compared to women, who maintain "strong support" for the Democratic Party. Likewise, bilingual households or those where Spanish is primarily spoken tend to vote more strongly for Democrats, and voters whose home language is English show greater support for the Republican candidate. Furthermore, national identity also influences political preferences. Thus, Cuban Americans, traditionally aligned with the Republican Party, have maintained this preference in these recent elections, while Mexicans and Puerto Ricans continue to show majority support for the Democratic Party.

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