Brussels launches its “budget for a new era”: the European Commission proposes a two trillion euro MFF for 2028–2034

Xabier González Barkos Almost two hours late, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen presented the long-awaited proposal for the European Union's new Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) for the period 2028–2034 to the press on Wednesday. This is an ambitious draft budget that will amount to two trillion euros, conceived, in the words of the President, as a “budget for a new era” that reflects the geopolitical, climatic, and technological transformation that Europe is undergoing. A budget with a long-term vision and defined priorities The new MFF proposes a significant increase compared to the current cycle, which was around 1.21 trillion euros, and is designed to respond to challenges that the Commission considers priority: competitiveness, defense, the environment, migration, and the rule of law. Among the main sections, the creation of the European Competitiveness Fund stands out, with a €451 billion budget, which will seek to strengthen the Union's industrial and technological autonomy. Added to this fund are €300 billion for the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), €218 billion for regional cohesion, and €131 billion for defense and space, the latter amount fivefold compared to the current funds allocated to this area. In addition, a €400 billion crisis mechanism is established to respond to pandemics, natural disasters, or armed conflicts. Von der Leyen explained that, with this structure, the budget seeks to "guarantee the economic, social, and territorial security" of the EU, as well as "strengthen Europe's voice in the world." More own resources and democratic oversight To finance this increase, the Commission proposes strengthening its own revenue sources: environmental taxes, the carbon border adjustment mechanism, and a percentage of revenue from emissions trading. With this, Brussels aims to reduce the burden of direct contributions from Member States and ensure the sustainability of the debt issued to finance the NextGenerationEU recovery plan. "The debt we incurred must be repaid, but not at the cost of suffocating our citizens. We are committed to a fairer and more modern own revenue system," Von der Leyen emphasized. Furthermore, the President confirmed that the allocation of funds will be conditional on respect for the rule of law and fundamental values. She explained that all national and regional plans must include concrete commitments to the rule of law, fundamental rights, and structural reforms. "This MFF will go further than ever before: it will not only finance projects, but will also require real and measurable progress in democratic quality," the President told reporters. Defense as a political priority One of the most notable shifts in the new budget is the firm commitment to defense and the security industry. With €131 billion allocated, Brussels wants the EU to be able to "guarantee its own security" and "act as a provider of stability in its neighborhood," in the words of Von der Leyen. "That's five times more than in the current budget. Defense is today one of the main concerns of European citizens," she explained. This section reflects the impact of the war in Ukraine, the deteriorating geopolitical environment, and the EU's intention to reduce its dependence on third countries for defense. More money for migration, climate, and innovation The Commission also proposes tripling investment in migration and border management, strengthening civil protection resources, and doubling R&D funds, especially the Horizon Europe program. Furthermore, more than 35% of the total budget will be allocated to energy transition and climate change adaptation initiatives. Von der Leyen stated that these increases are necessary for Europe to "remain competitive against the United States and China" and to meet its international climate commitments. Negotiations against the clock Although the proposal has been hailed by some as "historic," the path to final adoption is expected to be complex. A negotiation period now begins that could last up to two years. The Commission needs the unanimous support of all 27 Member States and the approval of the European Parliament. Community sources anticipate tensions between countries demanding more resources for cohesion and agriculture and those prioritizing defense, innovation, and new strategic investments. Furthermore, several governments have expressed concern about the potential impact of the new own-revenue system on their export sectors. Von der Leyen acknowledged at the press conference that the drafting of the document has been "a real marathon" and that last-minute negotiations delayed the publication of the full details. “It has taken us longer than expected, but we have presented a solid, coherent, and transformative proposal. We now trust that the Member States and Parliament will rise to the challenge,” she concluded. Next steps The official text will be distributed in the coming hours, and more technical details are expected at a subsequent briefing. The Commission plans to immediately begin bilateral meetings with the Member States to try to reach an agreement before the 2026 European elections, although it does not rule out the possibility of negotiations extending beyond that. With this proposal, Brussels seeks to project an image of a more strategic, autonomous, and resilient European Union, capable of responding to both internal and external challenges, and willing to link its budgetary strength to the defense of democracy and the rule of law.

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