Chamber of Commerce estimates direct impact of US tariffs on Spain would be “limited”

The Diplomat The Spanish Chamber of Commerce warns that the tariff policy of the United States, promoted by the administration of Donald Trump, is generating “great uncertainty in international markets”, although it qualifies that “the direct impact of an eventual imposition of tariffs on the European Union would be limited in the case of Spain”. In a statement sent to The Diplomat, the Chamber of Commerce warns about the use of tariffs as a political rather than economic tool. “Trump is using tariffs not so much to protect his domestic industry, but as a bargaining tool in other political and trade arenas. This approach introduces great uncertainty for the countries affected,” says Raúl Mínguez, director of the Research Department of the Spanish Chamber of Commerce. In any case, “the direct impact of an eventual imposition of tariffs on the European Union would be limited in the case of Spain, since our country has a lower exposure than other EU partners such as Italy, Germany or France. In the case of Spain, its trade balance with the United States is in deficit, that is, we import more than we export,” according to the Chamber of Commerce. Currently, exports to the United States represent around 2.3% of Spanish GDP (compared to 4.6% for the EU27). These are mainly divided into three main groups: capital goods (engines and other mechanical and electronic machinery, electrical equipment, office equipment, among others), semi-manufactured products (including chemicals and pharmaceuticals) and agri-food products (such as fats and oils). The United States is also the sixth largest destination for Spanish exports and the second largest among non-EU countries after the United Kingdom. Today, Spanish exports to the United States account for nearly 22,000 million euros per year, involving more than 27,000 companies of different sectors, sizes and regions. In the case of Spanish imports from the US, these account for around 2.5% of national GDP (4.3% in the case of the EU27), distributed in four major groups: capital goods, semi-manufactured products, agri-food products and energy products (mainly oil and gas). On the other hand, the Spanish Chamber of Commerce stresses that, in the event that tariffs are applied, a homogeneous measure would be less harmful to the global economy than discrimination by sectors or trade blocs. “If a generalized tariff is imposed, the impact would be less than if differentiated tariffs are established by sectors or geographical blocks, as the latter could alter relative prices and generate disadvantages for certain industries and territories, as well as generating uncertainty,” explained Mínguez. In addition to the direct impact, the tightening of US tariff policy could be greater, given the value added by Spain to other countries' sales to the US. In this respect, exports of products from European countries to the US market incorporate added value produced in Spain. A kind of indirect export to the US, via global value chains, which could also be at risk in the face of the tariff rearmament announced by the Trump Administration. To this would also be added the eventual impact on Spanish exports of non-tourist services, given that a part of these services sales are directly linked to trade in goods. In the event that goods transactions were to contract, there would be a negative impact on part of Spanish exports of services to the US. The Spanish Chamber of Commerce recalls that, should the threats of the new U.S. administration materialize, Spanish companies could apply the lessons learned in the previous stage, when they expanded their presence in emerging markets, sought new trading partners and advanced agreements with U.S. importers and distributors to renegotiate prices, terms and conditions, seeking to spread the impact of tariffs.

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