RESUMEN
Those who pointed to the decline of the idyllic relationship – the ‘special relationship’ as President John F. Kennedy called it – between Israel and the United States, as a result of the humanitarian situation in Gaza, now see an Uncle Sam committed to security in the region, when his geostrategic priorities were no longer in the Middle East but in Asia.
Raquel Barras Tejudo (UCM) / Instituto Franklin
Israel is surrounded by enemies. Since its creation in 1948, numerous actors have fought to wipe it off the map. Currently, Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza and the West Bank, Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, the Fatimid Brigade or Liwa Fatemiyoun in Syria, the Badr Organisation in Iraq, as well as other militias in Afghanistan and Pakistan and – of course – Iran, which finances and leads these mostly Shiite actors (except Hamas), have openly declared war on Israel.
Despite its complicated neighbourhood, Israel is not alone, as was demonstrated on Saturday 13 April, when the Ayatollahs’ regime and its proxies attacked the Hebrew country. This unprecedented direct aggression against a state, both in terms of the number and the manner in which it was perpetrated, is the largest long-range attack in history: in one “salvo” more than 300 projectiles were launched, including suicide drones (170), cruise missiles (30) and ballistic missiles (110).
Tehran justified its attack by invoking Article 51 of the UN Charter, which establishes the right to self-defence in the face of aggression. It also blamed the US for the Israeli attack on the vicinity of its embassy in Damascus on 1 April, which killed 13 people, including seven members of the Revolutionary Guards, including Commander Reza Zahedi (of the elite Quds Forces for Syria and Lebanon unit) and his number two, Hadi Hajriahimi.
In the aftermath of these events, international public opinion has been shifting. The widespread rejection of Israel for the effects of the furious military campaign in the Gaza Strip, in response to the deplorable attacks committed on 7 October 2023 by Hamas, was reflected in the Security Council Resolution of 25 March, passed by 14 votes in favour and a surprise US abstention, which was misinterpreted as a paradigm shift in its alliance. Specifically, the text called for a ceasefire to coincide with Ramadan, while noting the urgency of humanitarian aid to Gaza. Thus, what appeared to be a dead end for the Israeli narrative has become a window of opportunity.
A total of 13 countries were involved on both sides. The publicly displayed support for Israel shapes a new geopolitical map of regional alliances in the Middle East forged by the Abraham Accords of 2020, which makes clear the counterweights within the Muslim world and the battle between Sunni and Shia and, ultimately, the work of US diplomacy.
On the one hand, Jordan was, along with the US, the UK – itself with a privileged relationship with the world’s leading power – and France, one of the countries that deployed aircraft to destroy missiles and drones that had violated its airspace. Despite verbalising its rejection of Israel over the Gaza offensive, it opposed aid to Gazan refugees. The 30-year old peace agreement with Israel positions the Hashemite monarchy as one of its regional allies. On the other, Saudi Arabia surprised by making its airspace available and agreed with the United Arab Emirates to share intelligence that countered the Iranian attack.
The US is more than a reliable partner for Israel. At the systemic level, US geostrategic priorities were no longer the Middle East but Asia. However, it has again shown its unwavering support for Israel and, thanks to its involvement, the strength of its Kipat barzel (“Iron Dome” missile defence shield) was on display. In addition, air defence operations were coordinated by US Air Force Central Command from the Al-Udeid military base in Qatar. It has more than 1,000 troops in the area, as well as air defences, including Patriot batteries in Erbil (Iraqi Kurdistan) and THAAD. The US Navy has two destroyers deployed in the eastern Mediterranean (USS Arleigh Burke and USS Carney) and US F-15s destroyed around 70 drones.
In short, those who pointed to the decline of the idyllic relationship between Israel and the US, as a consequence of the humanitarian situation in Gaza, now see an Uncle Sam committed to security in the region; both through attacks against its targets in Syria, Iraq and Yemen, and through its selective responses along with pragmatic diplomacy, weaving new alliances for regional integration, such as the quadripartite between India, Israel, the United Arab Emirates and the US (I2U2).
This was the second round of a regional escalation that has given Tehran an insight into Israel’s real capabilities, the allies it has and the extent to which they are willing to engage. The US has disappointed no one. Israel has yet to respond to the attack and avoid the mistakes of the past.
RAQUEL BARRAS TEJUDO
Professor at Complutense University of Madrid
PhD in International Security and International Relations from the Instituto Universitario “General Gutiérrez Mellado” (UNED). European Master’s Degree in Human Rights and Democratisation from the European Inter-University Center. Degree in Political Science and Administration from the Complutense University of Madrid. Member of the UNISCI Research Group. She has completed postgraduate programmes in leadership at IESE Business School and Georgetown University. Her main areas of research are international security, with a special focus on North Africa, Sahel, West Africa, and the Horn of Africa; as well as hybrid threats, organised crime, terrorism, climate change, demography and migratory movements. She has worked as an advisor in the Congress of Deputies, in the Presidency of the Spanish Government, in the Department of National Security and, currently, in the Community of Madrid.
