Javier Fernández Arribas
‘Atalayar’ Editor
A new wind of negotiation stirs in the air to seek a solution to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It is not surprising that the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, has declared in an interview that he is ready to start a negotiation to put an end to a nightmare that in these ten months has caused him more displeasure than satisfaction. If he can find any. In the international scenario, one of the worst cards you have to play are those that place you as an uncomfortable partner, which complicates international trade, which seriously erodes your image due to its criminal behavior, which, in short, is the “I will and I cannot” because it has the nuclear capacity to intimidate, but its operability on the ground shows a high degree of ineffectiveness.
Nothing is solved yet in a conflict where the Ukrainians are the victims of a Russian pulse for the recovery of its international influence trying to control some of the former territories of the Soviet Union, after its experience in Syria where it did achieve its objectives of presenting itself as a political power, increasing its commercial partners for wheat, cereals, gas and oil, mainly, and consolidating its bases in the Mediterranean after showing its portfolio of new weapons systems, which can compete with the American ones, in medium and long range missiles.
However, the strategy of using this type of missiles against the main Ukrainian cities and destroying their electric infrastructures so that the cold and darkness become their deadly weapons, is not achieving the expected goals which would mean to militarily bend the Ukrainian army and to sow terror and sink the morale of the civilians who are resisting as best they can. The reality of the Russian Army units deployed on the ground in Ukraine has been a remarkable failure for a number of reasons. The war crimes committed have placed its prestige and credibility in the worst of scenarios. The poor operability of its units, the lack of discipline and motivation, the huge corruption among commanders and those responsible for logistics and equipment maintenance, an archaic communications system easily interceptable by the Ukrainian enemy and a misguided strategy with the application of a tactic that has been countered by years of preparation of Ukrainian units.
Since 2014, Ukrainian units of special operations, anti-aircraft defense, logistics and energy supply, supplies and fuel and defense in various rings of intensity, have been prepared, instructed, trained and supplied by various NATO countries, led by the United States, with the necessary weapons systems. After ten months of invasion, much has happened on all fronts. The attrition on all fronts and on all sides leads one to believe that the last few rounds indicate that each side intends to come to the negotiating table with the best possible cards.
The Ukrainian president, Volodimir Zelenski, achieved a dramatic effect with his visit to Washington dressed in a campaign uniform. An olive green that has accompanied him since February 24, the day of the beginning of the Russian invasion in Ukraine, and that reminds that he is not for protocols, nor white shirts with a tie, he is to get the United States to maintain its military aid, even to increase it with more modern systems. The Patriots will help defend Ukrainian electrical installations from Russian attacks and give him a good bargaining chip on the ground. President Joe Biden has been very close to Zelenski, sending a clear message to Putin that they will always stand by Ukraine. Biden is not so clear because the Republicans now control the House of Representatives and there is some group that is voicing opposition to continuing to spend so much money with aid to Ukraine.
Zelenski’s response in his speech in the chamber was that aid to Ukraine is an investment in global security and democracy. The Ukrainian president returned to Kiev with the commitment of the White House and the two chambers to continue helping Ukraine, but some believe that this visit has also discussed the need to consider a possible negotiation to end the war. It coincides with the intention expressed by Putin but with very demanding conditions. Negotiation is presented as something intrinsically complicated because a negotiation implies cession on both sides but it is essential to achieve the end of the armed conflict.
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