Roberto Gómez-Calvet
Professor of the Faculty of Social Sciences of the European University of Valencia
During the last few days we are experiencing an escalation in the tension between Russia and the European Union (EU). The imposition by Russia that the payment of gas imports should be in rubles was announced a few weeks ago. Needless to recall that this imposition means paying for the supply in a different currency than the one agreed in the purchase/sale contracts. Undoubtedly, most European countries did not expect that this obligation would have such immediate consequences as the supply cuts to two countries close to Ukraine: Poland and Bulgaria.
It is clear that the economic sanctions imposed on Russia by Western countries are having an impact on the Russian economy; proof of this was the immediate devaluation of its currency in the early stages of the war with Ukraine. In order to contain this hemorrhage and avoid a debacle of its currency on the markets, Russia has prescribed the obligation to pay for gas purchases in rubles. In parallel, Russia itself is propping up the value of its currency by selling gold and foreign currency on the international markets in exchange for rubles. This last policy is only sustainable in the very short term, and for this reason the best tool to maintain its currency is to ask Western states to collaborate with the payment of these gas sales in rubles and force them to contribute to the support of the quotation.
This change of criterion implies an alteration of the contractual conditions without prior notice or negotiation, and has been openly described by Brussels as blackmail. The current situation also makes mediation between the companies in the energy sector unfeasible, as they have not been responsible for this imposition and have no room for maneuver or negotiation. In other words, the only negotiation would be with the Russian government itself.
The immediate reaction of the affected governments has been to accelerate the difficult alternatives/supply substitution and prepare their economies for a complicated contingency. These actions are logical and necessary, but we should not be tempted to focus attention on this particular issue, as there may be a higher level problem lurking. Let us not forget that if the Russian leader is an expert in destabilizing other countries, it is in destabilizing other countries, and most probably the measure he intends to apply now seeks not only to shore up the already weak Russian economy, but also to produce something that would be more profitable for him, and that would be to produce gaps between the countries of the European Union that are tempted to resort to payment in rubles to avoid supply cuts. Recent reports from anonymous sources have confirmed the opening of ruble accounts and even possible payments already completed in rubles.
Within this strategy, it is not trivial that the first supply cut affects a country, Poland, which serves as a transit country for gas to other major consumers, such as Germany, and that Russia has also announced that, in the event of diversions of this gas in transit to Poland, the next country to be affected by the supply cut would be the recipient country. In other words, Putin wants to make the EU countries themselves accomplices and guardians of his impositions.
The EU has to measure well its reaction and responses, and not only look after the welfare of the Western economies, but also avoid something more important: the creation of fissures among its members, otherwise we will be facing a strategy of “divide and rule”, which is not at all desirable.
Any measure adopted by the EU in the coming days should take into consideration that it must be considered, agreed and, above all, if possible, negotiated. The collapse of the Russian economy is something that Putin may not be so concerned about, as long as the damage caused to the counterpart is of a greater magnitude. Most Western leaders lack experience in conflicts of this scale; it is necessary to learn fast, or else we may fall into traps and lose important battles.
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