Marta Martínez
Vladimir Putin’s goal is to end Ukraine’s independence, while Joe Biden has ruled out from the beginning any military action against Russia, which he considers a disruptive power rather than a real rival, such as China.
These are two of the ideas put forward by experts who took part yesterday in a round table discussion organised by the Elcano Royal Institute to address the conflict in Ukraine.
Mira Milosevich and Luis Simón, both researchers at Elcano, agreed that Ukraine is a fundamental pillar of Russia’s security and defence policy, which is why Putin is determined to do whatever is necessary to bring it into his orbit of influence.
Simon, who heads the Elcano Royal Institute’s Brussels office, said that Ukraine’s sovereign state is equally fundamental to European security, and that if Ukraine were to fall under Russian influence, NATO’s eastern flank would revert to Cold War times.
Milosevich, an expert on Russia, was quick to point out that Putin’s demands towards the West can be categorised as blackmail, noting that accepting them would mean reshaping the international security order, something the West is unwilling to accept. At the same time, she added, Ukraine is unwilling to give up its sovereignty, which has led to the current military conflict, under Putin’s justification of denazifying and disarming Ukraine in order to bring it back under Russian influence.
Félix Arteaga, a security and defence expert at the Elcano Royal Institute, pointed out that the military escalation has been surprisingly rapid, following the failures of diplomatic talks, in which neither side was willing to concede anything to the other. During these negotiations, he explained, there was a military deployment on both sides of the Ukrainian border, leaving room for military action at any time.
In Arteaga’s view, Putin has decided to take military action, the main message of which is to disable Ukraine politically, economically and militarily or leave it in a marginal situation.
The United States, meanwhile, has renounced any kind of direct military intervention in the conflict. According to US expert Carlota García Encina, in the face of the military escalation that took place in November, Biden changed his strategy for relations with Russia.
García Encina stressed that the United States currently sees Russia as a disruptive power, rather than a real rival, a role it has already assigned to China.
Thus, she said, Washington cannot focus its attention on a problem such as Ukraine, since it is not in its national interests, nor is it of vital importance to its security, nor is it a NATO ally. Given this situation, García Encina indicates that Biden is pursuing a strategy based on unity with European countries, the total elimination of the option of military action in the crisis, and “deterrence by revelation”. The latter concept, she explained, consists of providing information to both sides in the conflict in order to dissuade them from taking certain military or drastic actions.
The expert was convinced that Biden has ruled out military action from the outset, given the high likelihood of losing control of the situation. In her opinion, keeping Russia under control is important for the United States, but not enough to leave the threat from China unattended.
On this point, Luis Simón agreed, explaining that although Biden has an interest in maintaining balance in Europe and Asia, it is the latter that poses a long-term danger.
Ukraine is alone in this crisis, declared Mira Milosevich; no allied country is going to provide soldiers to fight alongside Ukrainian troops. Ukraine is also the key to Russia’s security and defence, Milosevich explained, because of its strategic location between Russia and the European Union. “Putin would not embark on such a dangerous and costly conflict if he did not consider it in the military interest of Russia’s national security,” she said.
