The Diplomat
Spain’s gross domestic product (GDP) will register growth of 5.7% in 2021, according to the latest forecasts of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), published yesterday, which represents a downward revision of five tenths of a percentage point compared to its previous estimate, released in July.
The drop in Spain’s economic growth forecasts is part of a generalised downgrading of estimates for advanced economies in 2021. According to the ‘World Economic Outlook’ report, which includes all these data, the group of developed countries as a whole will grow by 5.2% this year, which is four tenths of a percentage point less than the July forecast.
With regard to the euro zone, the IMF has decided to raise the overall growth of the Nineteen by four tenths of a percentage point, to 5%. This improvement is due to upward revisions in Italy (up nine tenths to 5.8%) and France (up five tenths to 6.3%), which have thus offset the declines in Spain and Germany (down five tenths to 3.1%).
With regard to 2022, the IMF considers that Spain will remain at the head of the recovery among the advanced economies. Thus, it raises its GDP growth projection for next year to 6.4%, six tenths of a percentage point higher than the previous projection.
This level of growth is the highest recorded by the rest of the developed economies included in the report. The advanced countries as a whole will grow by 4.5% in 2022, one tenth of a percentage point more than the previous forecast.
For the euro area as a whole, the Fund has left economic growth unchanged at 4.3%. By country, Italy has also remained unchanged, with an expansion of 4.2%, while France will grow by 3.9% next year, three tenths of a percentage point more, and Germany will advance by 4.6%, five tenths of a percentage point more.
With regard to growth in the fourth quarter of 2021 compared with the same period last year, the IMF’s estimate for Spain is 7.4%. This is the same figure as that estimated in July.
With this revision, the IMF’s forecasts for Spain’s GDP in 2021 are further away from those of the government, which last September decided to leave them unchanged at 6.5%. For 2022, despite the Fund’s improvement of six tenths of a percentage point to 6.4%, they are also far from those of the Executive, which also left them unchanged at 7%.
After learning of the IMF’s estimates, the State Secretary for the Economy and Business Support, Gonzalo García Andrés, stressed that they certify that Spain will lead economic growth in 2022.
In his Twitter account, he stressed that the IMF improves the forecast for 2022 and that Spain will be the most dynamic country in the European Union. García Andrés highlighted that the international organisation confirms that “the recovery is going from strength to strength and will intensify” and also predicts that “the reduction of the deficit and debt will accelerate”.
