<h6><strong>Eduardo González</strong></h6> <h4><strong>President of the Government Pedro Sánchez has reached an agreement with NATO to make defense spending more flexible and, therefore, to avoid requiring Spain to reach the 5 percent of GDP target demanded by both the United States and the Alliance's Secretary General, Mark Rutte.</strong></h4> Sánchez himself announced this Sunday in a statement to the media from Moncloa Palace. "The agreement we have reached today is good for Spain and for NATO as a whole" because "it will allow us to fulfill our commitments to the Atlantic Alliance without having to increase our defense spending to 5% of GDP," he stated. In the statement, Sánchez reiterated that the 5% proposed by Rutte and US President Donald Trump “would be disproportionate and unnecessary” because “there are economic differences” between NATO members when it comes to fulfilling their “proportional” defense commitments. In this regard, the Prime Minister explained that NATO has always worked based on the technical and human capabilities that its allies need to neutralize the dangers and threats it faces, and not on percentages of GDP. "Consider, for example, that in some countries the average salary of a soldier is three times higher than in other NATO member countries, or that producing or acquiring these defense capabilities in some countries costs half as much as in others," he stated. Armed Forces technicians, he added, have estimated that "Spain will need 2.1% of its GDP to acquire and maintain all the personnel, all the equipment, and all the infrastructure requested by the Alliance to confront these threats with our capabilities. Therefore, 2.1%, no more, no less." Furthermore, the Prime Minister warned that strengthening Europe's strategic autonomy does not involve spending more, but rather "spending better, spending together": "The essential thing is to increase the interoperability of our Armed Forces. The fundamental thing is to establish common purchasing mechanisms, to develop our own defense industry, and to create, once and for all, at least in the opinion of the Spanish Government, the Common European Army." Pedro Sánchez also stated that a 5% spending level on defense would be incompatible with the Welfare State and with Spain's worldview. "Going from 2% to 5% between now and 2035 would require spending an additional €350 billion, which could only be achieved by raising taxes for each worker by around €3,000 annually; eliminating unemployment, sickness, and maternity benefits; reducing all pensions by 40%; or cutting state investment in education in half," he concluded. The agreement, reached after several negotiations, will allow for modifications to the declaration of the Summit, which will take place this week in The Hague. In this context, Mark Rutte responded to the letter sent last Thursday by Sánchez in which he requested that the declaration of the Hague Summit include “a more flexible formula” that would allow “Spain to be excluded” from this obligation. In Rutte's letter, the Secretary General states that "Spain is convinced that it can meet the new agreed capability targets with a spending trajectory of less than 5% (3.5% on core defense and 1.5% on security-related expenditure) of GDP." "In light of your letter, I hereby confirm that the agreement at the upcoming NATO Summit will grant Spain the flexibility to determine its own sovereign path to achieving the capability target and the annual resources required as a percentage of GDP, as well as to submit its own annual plans," Rutte writes. "Furthermore, the trajectory and balance of spending under this plan will be reviewed in 2029, in light of the strategic environment and NATO's updated capability targets," he adds. “In light of your letter, and in the interest of Allied unity, I can hereby confirm that Spain will accept the draft declaration distributed on June 22nd for the upcoming NATO Summit, with the understanding that Spain's commitment refers to meeting the capability target on time and in full, regardless of the proportion of GDP this represents, and to submitting our own annual plans accordingly,” he continued. Therefore, the declaration will avoid the expression “each Allied commits to 5%” and opt for a generic “Allied,” without naming the 32 Member States. Under these circumstances, Spain will be able to combine 2% of GDP with meeting NATO commitments, while the 5% obligation will be reserved for the remaining Allies. However, the text will warn that, in the future, this 2% could fluctuate depending on the commitments and objectives agreed upon by NATO members and how Spain's GDP evolves. In his letter to Rutte, Pedro Sánchez stated that 2.1 percent is enough for Spain to meet NATO's military capability objectives. <h5><strong>The Summit</strong></h5> The Hague Summit, which will mark a new moment of strategic definition for the Atlantic Alliance in an international context of high instability and systemic competition, will address the adoption of agreements aimed at strengthening the Alliance’s eastern and northern flanks, improving industrial interoperability in defense matters—a point of common interest for Brussels and Washington—and fine-tuning the multi-year support mechanism for Ukraine, amidst the geopolitical uncertainties created by Trump during his second term. The role of actors such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia, increasingly relevant observers in the allied discussions, will also be discussed. A key factor is compounded by this scenario: growing internal pressure within NATO for allies to meet—and exceed—their defense investment commitments. While 2% of GDP has already become the minimum required, in some circles—especially in Washington and within the Alliance’s military command—there is talk of a “strategic 5%” as a hypothesis for the most committed countries. Specifically, Mark Rutte presented a plan to The Hague Summit, conceived by Donald Trump, which recommends reaching this 5% percentage by 2032 with a sustained annual increase that countries must declare and comply with. As the only concession, likely “authorized” by the US president, the percentage would be divided into 3.5% for pure military spending and 1.5% for investments in security-related infrastructure. In this context, the Spanish government is, for now, maintaining its roadmap to reach 2% of GDP by 2029, a demanding but politically accepted goal. However, any allied pressure to accelerate this timeline or raise the bar would present the Executive with complex decisions, both budgetary and public communication-related. In a country without a deep-rooted defense culture and with persistent social demands, and amid the fierce controversy Sánchez is facing over corruption cases within the PSOE, squaring the circle will not be easy. Defense Minister Margarita Robles confirmed last May in Brussels before her NATO counterparts that Spain will not spend more than 2% of GDP on defense. The Defense Minister assured that Spain will not veto the joint statement, but warned that it would be a “mistake” to increase defense spending to 5% without “clearly” analyzing the Alliance’s needs and “the capacity of the European defense industry to assume that amount of money.” According to Robles, “Spain is a reliable, responsible, and serious ally” that has “committed to reaching 2% of GDP this year” with the National Plan for the Development and Promotion of Technology and the Security and Defense Industry, announced on April 22 by Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez. The goal is to reach the 2% commitment to NATO and the EU rearmament plan by 2025. Spain’s position is not unique, but it is one of the most significant among the major Western European NATO countries. Always trailing the Alliance’s budgetary decisions, it wasn’t until 2022 that Spain announced its intention to reach the 2% of GDP target set by the Wales Summit (2014) for ten years later. This happened at the end of the NATO summit in Madrid, where President Sánchez “puffed his chest” by announcing that he would fulfill his commitment throughout that year, ahead of the scheduled date. However, in 2024, ten years after Wales, Spain still had not met its commitment, placing it at the bottom of the NATO countries in terms of the percentage of GDP contributed to defense, at 1.28%, according to data from the Alliance itself. Following the presentation of the White Paper on Defense by the European Council, which includes joint procurement and a strategic reserve of munitions and missiles, and the first proposals for the Commission’s plan to rearm Europe, Pedro Sánchez pledged in Brussels to bring forward the commitment to reach two percent of GDP for defense spending, previously announced for 2029. In this context, on April 22, during an urgent appearance at the Moncloa Palace after the Council of Ministers, the President of the Government presented the National Plan for the Development and Promotion of Security and Defense Technology and Industry, which aims to achieve the two percent commitment to NATO and the EU rearmament plan by 2025. As expected, this decision opened new gaps between the PSOE and Sumar, the two parties in the coalition government.
