<h6><strong>Julio García</strong></h6> <h4><strong>The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has improved its deficit and public debt forecasts for Spain through 2030 and estimates that the public accounts gap will close 2025 at 2.7% of GDP, one-tenth less than the previous forecast, while debt will fall to 100.6% of GDP, also one-tenth less.</strong></h4> At a time of enormous global uncertainty, Spain is, along with Russia, the only country or region included in the organization's latest forecast to receive an upward revision for 2025 compared to the IMF's January forecast, which estimated that Spanish growth for this year would be 2.3% of GDP, instead of the 2.5% currently expected. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) believes that, despite being subject to an upward growth revision of two-tenths of a percentage point for 2025, the Spanish economy is not immune to the negative effects of the tariff war launched by the US administration of Donald Trump, and its effects are expected to be felt in 2026. According to the country-by-country database updated by the fund after publishing its macroeconomic forecasts, Spain will reduce its public deficit to 2.4% of GDP in 2026 and thereafter will reduce it by one-tenth of a percentage point each year until the end of 2030. This estimate is higher than that of the Spanish government, which estimates that the deficit will reach 2.5% of GDP in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026. Regarding public debt, the IMF forecasts a downward path, with a decrease to 99% of GDP in 2026 and then 93% in 2030. In this case, it improves on the government's path, which plans to reduce debt to 101.4% of GDP in 2025 and 100.1% in 2026. The IMF considers these debt levels to be still very high and has recommended that Spain bring forward the fiscal adjustment planned for the coming years, according to the organization and reported by Efe, with its statement two weeks ago at the conclusion of the country's annual economic assessment. In the fund's opinion, the Spanish authorities should take advantage of the strong economic momentum to more quickly rebuild fiscal space and reduce sovereign debt risks. To this end, it recommended strengthening the national fiscal framework to ensure that regions contribute to the consolidation effort and adopting employment-friendly measures to address the projected growing gap between pension spending and Social Security contributions resulting from the aging of the population. The report also places Spain as the only major European country for which the IMF has improved its economic growth forecast. Within the eurozone, Germany, France, and Italy are declining, and the UK's GDP forecast is also lower, with growth expected to reach 1.1% this year, half a percentage point below the previous forecast.
