<h6><strong>Ane Barcos</strong></h6> <h4><strong>The latest forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), published this Tuesday, place Spain as an exception within the European Union. While most of the bloc's major economies show signs of stagnation, the IMF estimates that Spanish GDP will grow by 2.5% this year, making it the only major EU economy with an expansion above 2%.</strong></h4> This trend contrasts with the deteriorating global outlook following the recent escalation of trade tensions. Following the "virtually universal" tariffs imposed by the United States on April 2, a measure that "has raised US and global tariff rates to levels not seen in a century," the global economy is facing a new negative shock. According to the IMF, this situation has generated "a notable slowdown in global growth in the short term," affecting both supply and demand and disrupting global supply chains. The IMF has cut its global growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, down from the 3.3% estimated in January, and projects a slight improvement to 3.0% in 2026. In the United States, growth is slowing to 1.8%, affected by "greater policy uncertainty, trade tensions, and weaker demand momentum." In the eurozone, growth is forecast at 0.8%. In this context, the Spanish economy stands out for its ability to maintain a growth rate higher than that of its European partners. According to the IMF, countries such as Germany, France, and Italy will see significant cuts to their forecasts for 2025. Germany will stagnate with zero growth, France will remain at 0.6%, and Italy will barely reach 0.4%. This contrast reinforces Spain's position as the most dynamic economy among the major EU members. The IMF warns, however, that risks remain high. The global economic environment could deteriorate further if trade tensions become chronic or if pressure on financial markets intensifies. "The global economy has demonstrated surprising resilience during the severe shocks of the past four years and has yet to fully recover. Now it is being tested once again," the report states. In its recommendations, the international organization emphasizes the need to act with "prudence, clarity, and greater collaboration." It considers restoring the stability of the trading system, protecting the independence of central banks, and advancing structural reforms that stimulate medium-term growth to be a priority. A potential reversal of current tariffs "could immediately improve the outlook" for the global economy.
