Spain is one of the few European countries that will not have lost global presence in 2025, according to Elcano

Eduardo González Spain ranks thirteenth in the 2026 Elcano Global Presence Index, making it, according to the think tank, one of "the few European countries that have not seen a reduction in the value of their presence compared to the previous year." The report, presented this Wednesday, June 17, was prepared by the Elcano Royal Institute to measure and compare the evolution of countries' external projection since 1990 through its economic, military, and soft power dimensions, based on the results for 150 countries. As a new feature, and to mark the Institute's 25th anniversary, this edition (the fifteenth of the report) also includes an assessment of the historical process of globalization between 1990 and 2025. According to Elcano, “despite growing uncertainty and greater geopolitical fragmentation, globalization is not receding, but rather changing.” In the 1990s, with the overcoming of “the bipolar logic of the Cold War” in favor of “a more multipolar configuration,” globalization came to be understood as “an inevitable and irreversible process within an optimistic narrative centered on external openness and increasing integration as a mechanism for stability and an opportunity for development,” and in which “a less militarized international order” seemed to be taking hold. “Just over three decades later, the narrative is different,” with “a scenario marked by less dynamic international trade and growing geopolitical rivalry,” the study warns. With the pandemic, technological tensions between the US and China, the war against Ukraine, and Donald Trump's return to the White House, a new era of globalization has emerged, marked by increasing uncertainty and geographic and geopolitical fragmentation, in which external interdependence can now constitute a strategic vulnerability. US, China, and Russia With this starting point, the report reveals that, in 2025, the United States continues to lead the Elcano Global Presence Index, followed by China, still at a considerable distance. "The increases are concentrated, in this order, in China, Russia, and the US, while the remaining countries register significant losses or very slight increases in their global presence," it continues. "China and the US are increasing primarily due to a greater economic presence and, to a lesser extent, also a military one," but there is also "a notable divergence in the evolution of their soft power," since, "while China continues to increase it, the US is reducing it," the study indicates. “The domestic context in the US, changes in immigration policies, the attraction of international students, and development cooperation, among other factors, are eroding US soft power,” it adds. “Meanwhile, Russia is experiencing an increase in its global presence explained almost exclusively by the growth of its military projection, which has increased by around 14 percent compared to the previous year, while reducing its economic presence and soft power.” Spain Among the countries that will lose ground in 2025 are several European nations and other powers of the so-called Global North, such as Japan and Australia. Spain, specifically, remains in thirteenth position between Italy and Australia, and is “one of the few European countries that has not seen a reduction in its global presence compared to the previous year.” While its growth is very modest, at only 0.5 points, Spain has been able to offset losses in some indicators such as Manufacturing and Culture with gains in Tourism, Sports, and Information, among others. This performance contrasts with that of other EU partners, which show slight declines, such as France and Italy, or more pronounced ones, such as the Netherlands and Germany, hampered mainly by the drop in their economic presence. By Region By region, globalization continues to concentrate in Europe, North America, and Asia. The main change in recent decades has been the Asian boom, whose share of global presence has practically doubled since 1990, driven largely by China's growth. This trend, which intensified after 2010, has led the region to surpass North America, consolidating its position as the second most influential global center after Europe. The Middle East has seen a slight increase, primarily due to its role in the energy sector, while Latin America and Africa have reduced their relative weight. On the other hand, the European Union has seen its relative weight decline in recent years. After maintaining a greater global presence than the US since 2005, the EU has experienced a significant drop since 2020, marked by the impact of Brexit and the pandemic, and primarily due to the reduced contributions of its two largest economies, Germany and France. As a result, the US surpassed the EU's level of global presence for the first time in 2025.

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