Alternativas warns that Spanish political polarization could doom the Ibero-American Summit in Madrid

Eduardo González The Alternativas Foundation has warned that the 30th Ibero-American Summit, to be held next November in Madrid, will inevitably be affected by the so-called “Trump factor” and by the internal polarization of Spanish politics, with the consequent “real risk” of “a clash of ideologies” that could “doom” this international event. “Spain is hosting an Ibero-American Summit for the fourth time, this time in a very different and much more delicate international context than in past summits such as those in Madrid (1992), Salamanca (2005), or Cádiz (2012),” warns Vicente Palacio, Director of Foreign Policy at the Alternativas Foundation, in the first chapter of the report “The 30th Ibero-American Summit: Strategic Opportunity and New Agenda,” presented this Tuesday, April 28, at the Casa América headquarters in Madrid. According to the document, “the Trump factor has a negative effect—whether disruptive, divisive, or distracting—on other multilateral organizations and forums, including the Ibero-American Summit.” This is compounded by the upcoming US midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026, “immediately before the Ibero-American Summit,” which “represent a significant test for the Trump administration and also for its relations with Latin American and Caribbean governments.” The impact of these elections “before and after the summit is difficult to predict.” Furthermore, “2026 marks the beginning of an intense electoral period in Latin America, with five presidential elections, two of them in major countries (Brazil in October and Colombia in May-June) that could tip the balance of power in the region vis-à-vis the US.” “If Flavio Bolsonaro in Brazil or the Colombian right wing prevail in their respective countries, this could end up affecting even the purpose of the Madrid Summit,” the document warns. “Although it cannot be guaranteed that the support of Trump or MAGA for their ideologically aligned candidates (also in the elections in Peru or Haiti) will translate into a victory at the polls, it is very likely that their influence will partially monopolize the agenda and the debate,” it adds. In any case, both inflation (resulting from gas and oil prices due to the Iran-Contra affair) and citizen insecurity “could be factors that decisively influence the vote,” it continues. Amid this uncertainty and instability, according to the Fundación Alternativa, the Spanish Pro Tempore Secretariat (SPT) emphasized, during the Summit, “the construction of a truly cohesive Ibero-American Community and the strengthening of its international projection,” two objectives “aligned with Spain’s national interests at a time of heightened international visibility for its government due to its stance on the Middle East, international law, and defense spending within NATO,” issues that, moreover, “have been the subject of frequent clashes between the Spanish government and the Trump administration.” Consequently, the report asserts, “the challenge for Spain lies in uniting its Ibero-American partners around a program that focuses on internal solidarity and improved internal cooperation, as well as giving it a more global profile.” In this context, “the government has the opportunity to make its efforts in the region visible and ‘Spanishize’ them” in matters such as the EU-MERCOSUR agreement, and the new Ibero-American cooperation strategy “can serve as inspiration to other regions at a time of declining international cooperation, anchored by the programs resulting from the IV International Conference on Financing for Development in Seville in June-July 2025.” Political polarization However, the foundation warns, “the barriers to consolidating a new Ibero-American space around the Madrid Summit are not only exogenous (the Trump factor, electoral turbulence and ideological polarization in Latin America, or international crises) but also largely domestic in nature.” “The Summit is taking place at a time of great internal political polarization, where Spain’s Latin American policy (cases of Venezuela, Mexico, or Cuba) has long been a source of profound differences and instrumentalization by political forces,” the report highlights. “On this occasion, the Summit and its program lack explicit support from the main opposition party (PP), and even less so from the far right (Vox), which were absent from the preparations and substantive discussions beforehand,” it continues. “There is, therefore, a real risk of the Summit drifting into a clash of ideologies (that is, that Madrid will become an arena for confrontation between governments and within Spanish politics), which would weaken an event already in need of support and doom it to failure,” it warns. “It should not be forgotten that, in fact, the aforementioned political forces—PP and VOX—have forged links with right-wing and far-right forces, respectively, forming networks such as the so-called ‘Iberosphere’ and even conferences of the populist far-right International, taking advantage of the rise of the Latin American right,” it adds. A good example of this, it recalls, is the president of the Community of Madrid, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, who “maintains a permanent tension due to the high profile of her parallel agenda, and of the opposite nature, whether in the reception or attendance at conferences of international leaders, such as the one organized by President Trump in February 2026 in Mar-a-Lago”, or through “direct interference in the field of international politics, for example in alliance with President Milei against Presidents Lula or Petro, taking advantage of regional government platforms with the aim of weakening the central government”.

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