The OECD raises its own growth forecast for Spain to 2.9 percent

Eduardo González The latest biennial report from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) on Spain raises its growth forecast for the country to 2.9 percent in 2025, but warns of the need for “fiscal consolidation” and “structural reforms” to guarantee sustainable growth in the medium term. The “Economic Survey of Spain 2025,” published and presented this Wednesday, November 26, in Madrid by OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann and the Minister of Economy, Trade and Business, Carlos Cuerpo, increases its own growth forecast for Spain by three-tenths of a percentage point, to 2.9 percent, in 2025, and by two-tenths of a percentage point, to 2.2 percent, in 2026. The estimate for 2027 is 1.8 percent. These forecasts, which revise the agency's own projections from two weeks ago, align with those of other public and private organizations. According to the report, the Spanish economy has experienced "resilient and steady growth in recent years, outperforming its European counterparts." The main driver of this improved outlook, the study attributes to domestic demand and strong household consumption, supported by an expanding workforce. The report also anticipates increased investment over the next two years due to European funds linked to the Recovery Plan and lower interest rates. However, the document warns that “fiscal consolidation and structural reforms are fundamental” for this growth to be sustainable in the medium term and, in this regard, recommends “prudence” regarding future increases in the minimum wage (SMI) in Spain and a reform of the pension system to reduce “long-term spending pressures” linked to an aging population, as explained by Mathias Corman, whose visit coincides with his re-election as Secretary-General of the OECD for the next term. Corman also met this Wednesday with the Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, and the Minister of Foreign Affairs, José Manuel Albares. At the same event, Carlos Cuerpo emphasized that the growth forecasts included in the report are “the same as those of the Government,” highlighting “the current strength of the Spanish economy,” including its “distinctive character compared to other partners,” and reflecting “Spain’s new economic and social model, with solid growth, which places us at the forefront of major economies.” Before the report's presentation, Mathias Cormann was received by José Manuel Albares at the Ministry's headquarters in the Palacio de Viana. During the meeting, according to a press release from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Albares reaffirmed Spain's bid to host the OECD Regional Programme Ministerial Summit for Latin America and the Caribbean in 2026 and highlighted the organization's work in areas such as development, climate change, the digital transition, social inclusion, and gender equality. The OECD Secretary-General was also received by Pedro Sánchez, who congratulated him on his re-election and with whom he discussed "the report on Spain, which revises our country's forecasts upwards, the strengthening of multilateralism, and how to bolster our cooperation," as the Prime Minister wrote on social media.

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