Introduction: The War That Changed Europe
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 marked a watershed moment in international politics. For Europe, it was a direct blow to the security order built after the end of the Cold War. For decades, the EU had relied on a model of economic integration and energy dependence with Russia, convinced that trade and interdependence would guarantee stability. The Kremlin’s decision to attack Kyiv shattered that narrative and brought war back to European soil on a scale not seen since 1945.
Three years later, the conflict remains unresolved and has morphed into a war of attrition. Russia retains control over parts of the Donbas and the Crimean Peninsula, while Ukraine fights for survival with Western support. Economic sanctions, energy embargoes, and diplomatic pressure have not been enough to force Moscow into retreat.
The immediate consequence has been the transformation of Europe’s security architecture. NATO has regained centrality, the EU has taken unprecedented steps in common defense, and Member States have been compelled to rethink their national strategies.
Spain—traditionally more focused on the southern flank, the Mediterranean and the Sahel—faces the challenge of strengthening its presence in the east without neglecting its southern neighborhood. It must also assume a leading role as host of the 2025 NATO Summit, where much of the Alliance’s strategy for the next decade will be defined.
This analysis examines how the war in Ukraine is reshaping Spain’s security agenda on three levels: its contribution to NATO, its role in the EU, and the balance between eastern and southern priorities.
Ukraine: A War of Attrition with Global Impact
The Military Front
Russia’s initial offensive sought a swift victory over Kyiv. The failure of that strategy gave way to a protracted war centered on control of the Donbas and relentless attacks on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure. Ukrainian resistance, bolstered by Western arms, has prevented collapse, but Russia’s numerical superiority has hindered significant advances.
By 2025, the conflict has entered a phase of violent stabilization: front lines have barely shifted, yet airstrikes and artillery continue to batter the civilian population. The war has become a test of political, economic, and social endurance for both sides.
International Support
The United States and the EU remain Ukraine’s primary backers. Washington has provided more than $75 billion in military and financial aid, though it faces internal tensions in sustaining that support. The EU, for its part, has approved the European Peace Facility and is debating stable financing mechanisms to guarantee long-term assistance.
Spain has joined this effort by supplying weapons—including Leopard tanks and air defense systems—training Ukrainian soldiers in Toledo, and committing financial contributions exceeding €3.5 billion.
Human and Economic Costs
The toll of war is devastating: tens of thousands of deaths, millions displaced, and a shattered Ukrainian economy. Reconstruction is estimated to cost over €400 billion—a figure that will demand active EU involvement, with Spain playing its part.
NATO in the Face of the Russian Challenge
Russia’s invasion has revitalized NATO. An organization that French President Emmanuel Macron described in 2019 as “brain dead” has reasserted itself as the guarantor of collective defense.
Enlargement and Reinforcement
The accession of Finland and Sweden has extended the Alliance’s borders with Russia and reinforced the northern flank. NATO has deployed additional forces in Poland and the Baltic States, increasing its military presence in Eastern Europe.
The Spending Commitment
The target of allocating at least 2% of GDP to defense has gained traction. By 2024, more than half of the Allies had reached or surpassed that figure. Spain, with spending around 1.3%, lags behind, though the government has pledged to meet the 2% target by 2029.
The 2025 Madrid Summit
Spain will host the upcoming NATO Summit, a crucial event to showcase its image as a reliable ally and to bring to the Atlantic agenda issues directly affecting its interests, such as security in the Sahel and migratory pressure in the Mediterranean.
The European Union and Common Defense
The war in Ukraine has accelerated the construction of a European defense policy:
-
The European Peace Facility has financed arms deliveries to Kyiv.
-
A European Commissioner for Defense is under discussion.
-
Joint procurement programs for weapons and ammunition have gained momentum.
-
The Strategic Compass, adopted in 2022, sets the path toward greater strategic autonomy.
Spain plays an active role in these processes, supporting the strengthening of Europe’s defense industry and the alignment of EU projects with NATO’s to avoid duplication. Spanish companies’ participation in European programs—such as the Future Combat Air System (FCAS)—reinforces this commitment.
Spain: Between the Eastern and Southern Flanks
Commitment to the East
Spain has deployed more than 800 troops to NATO missions in Latvia, Romania, and the eastern Mediterranean. Its Eurofighter jets conduct air policing over the Baltic, and its Navy contributes to surveillance in the Black Sea. These efforts demonstrate Madrid’s willingness to support the defense of the eastern front.
Concerns in the South
At the same time, Spain insists that European security cannot focus solely on Russia. The Sahel—with rising jihadism and state collapse in Mali and Niger—poses an immediate threat to Mediterranean stability. Migration pressures, political instability in North Africa, and Russia’s growing presence via the Wagner Group add urgency to the southern agenda.
The Strategic Dilemma
Spain’s central challenge is to balance both priorities. In practice, this means persuading its allies that collective defense must also encompass the Mediterranean and Africa—without diverting resources from Ukraine.
Challenges for Spain
-
Defense spending: Reaching 2% of GDP will require sustained budgetary effort and political consensus, which remains elusive.
-
National industry: Spain must strengthen its technological and defense base to avoid overreliance on external suppliers.
-
Internal consensus: Political polarization could hinder the continuity of a coherent security policy.
-
Diplomatic projection: The 2025 Summit will be an opportunity to position Spain as a bridge between east and south.
Conclusions
The war in Ukraine has transformed European security. Spain, though not a military power, has a meaningful role to play. Its contribution to NATO, its active participation in the EU, and its ability to articulate a balanced vision between the eastern and southern flanks grant it an essential voice in strategic debates.
Madrid’s challenge will be to fulfill its eastern commitments, strengthen its defense industry and spending, and at the same time keep the Mediterranean firmly on the agenda. If it succeeds, Spain will consolidate itself as a reliable ally and a diplomatic actor of weight in shaping Europe’s future security order.
📊 Box: “Spain, Ukraine, and European Security in Figures”
-
€3.5 billion committed by Spain in aid to Ukraine since 2022.
-
Over 800 Spanish troops deployed in NATO missions in Eastern Europe.
-
€1.2 billion in contracts for the Spanish defense industry linked to European programs.
-
2% of GDP in defense spending: target for 2029; Spain currently around 1.3%.
-
€400 billion: estimated cost of rebuilding Ukraine.
-
$75 billion: total U.S. aid to Ukraine since 2022.
-
9 million Ukrainian refugees across Europe.
