Spaniards are divided on defense spending, support nuclear energy, and believe that Gaza is a genocide

Eduardo González 82% of citizens consider Israel's actions in Gaza to be genocide, 66% support nuclear energy after the recent blackout, and while 57% believe Europe should invest more in weapons and defense, opinions are evenly divided when the question refers to Spanish defense spending. These are the main conclusions of the 45th wave of the Elcano Royal Institute Barometer (BRIE), presented this Monday at the think tank's headquarters in Madrid. The BRIE is a periodic survey conducted since 2002 among a representative sample of the general Spanish population to measure the state of public opinion regarding Spain's international relations and foreign policy. According to the study, conducted through 1,000 telephone interviews in Spain's 17 autonomous communities and two autonomous cities, conducted among individuals aged 18 to 80, 82% of Spaniards describe Israel's actions as genocide, and 78% support official recognition of the State of Palestine by European states. Furthermore, support for the State of Israel has fallen from 28% to 23%. However, the report reveals that, despite this strong condemnation of Israeli government policy, there is no increase in antisemitism in Spain, which remains a minority. "Spaniards clearly distinguish between the Jewish population of the entire world and what Benjamin Netanyahu's government is doing in Gaza," explained Carmen González-Enríquez, senior researcher at the Elcano Royal Institute, during the BRIE presentation. In fact, the survey shows that, in general, Spaniards seem to clearly distinguish between the Israeli government and the Jewish population, since, while they broadly condemn the former, the global Jewish population receives an average positive rating of 5.7 out of 10. This figure, according to Carmen González and researcher and co-author of the report Fernando Gijón, reflects "a great intellectual maturity among Spaniards." Defense On the other hand, and continuing with another of the major topics of current debate, Spaniards show very high support for Spain's continued membership in NATO (85%), and the majority of respondents, 57%, believe that Europe should invest more in weapons and defense. However, opinions are evenly divided when the question refers to Spanish defense spending. Specifically, 49% believe that Spain should spend more on defense, "even if that means spending less on other policies," compared to 51% who think the opposite. As expected, there are profound differences on this issue based on ideology: among right-wing respondents, those in favor of Spain spending more on defense almost triple those on the left. Those interviewed who place themselves in the center of the ideological scale are also halfway between the two positions. In any case, the majority of Spaniards (60%) believe that our country's security is not threatened by any other country. In this regard, the left is much less concerned than the right about potential threats to the country's security. Where there has been a clear shift is in the perception of which specific country could be a threat to Spain. Morocco remains in first place, but with a higher percentage of responses than in previous editions of this survey (55%), and Russia remains in second place. Following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the perception of Russia as a potential threat to Spain increased substantially, rising from 20% to 36% of mentions. Compared to the 2024 BRIE, the US has gone from being seen as a threat to Spain by only 5% of respondents (of those who believed in 2024 that there is some threat to Spain) to a striking 19% this year, in what appears to be a direct effect of Donald Trump's policies. EU 83% of Spaniards consider membership in the European Union beneficial, although a slight decline in this perception and an increase in those who see it as detrimental (14%) have been detected, especially among right-wingers and those with lower educational levels. As we have pointed out on other occasions, Spain's high level of Europeanism coexists with a low level of knowledge about European institutions and policies. Proof of this is the high percentage of respondents who are unaware of who currently presides over the European Commission. The fact that Ursula von der Leyen has been in office for six years has substantially increased her level of knowledge, now reaching half of those interviewed, but 50% still remain unaware of who presides over the Commission. In any case, the level of awareness of Ursula von der Leyen is much higher than that of José Manuel Durão Barroso, who, in 2014, when he had been President of the Commission for nine years, was only known (remembered by name or surname) by 30% of Spaniards. This can be interpreted as an indication of greater interest among Spaniards in EU affairs. Regarding Spaniards' concerns related to Europe, irregular immigration ranks first, ahead of the war in Ukraine and poverty. Furthermore, the addition to the list of possible responses of a new one referring to the tariffs that Donald Trump wants to impose on European products, chosen as the main challenge by 32% of those interviewed, has reduced the weight of other issues, such as climate change, which now falls to fifth place. On the other hand, 54% believe that democracy is in danger in Western Europe, and 14% identify the far right as the source or expression of this threat. The vast majority of those who perceive a threat to democracy in Western Europe attribute its cause to elements of the internal political life of European states, but there are also mentions of external factors, socioeconomic problems, and immigration. War in Ukraine Spanish public opinion is pessimistic about the future of the conflict in Ukraine: the majority does not believe the country will recover the territories invaded by Russia in the last three years or the Crimean peninsula, annexed in 2014. Only 39% see the war as likely to end this year, and opinions are divided about the possibility of Russia invading new countries. Despite this pessimism, three-quarters of those interviewed (75%) believe that Europe should continue to support Ukraine militarily, and more than half (52%) believe that Spain itself should send troops to guarantee its security, "a significant fact given Spanish citizens' traditional rejection of the use of military force," according to Elcano. US Furthermore, the prestige of the US among Spaniards has declined due to Donald Trump's presidency. Sympathy toward the US is now lower than that expressed toward China, and far lower than that felt toward Palestine or Ukraine. “We are at our lowest level of trust in the United States, not only in Spain, but globally,” González-Enríquez stated. Donald Trump receives a very low rating, 2.5 out of 10, lower even than Chinese President Xi Jinping. In the global battle between the US and China, support for the US has decreased substantially, falling from 35% to 11%. Furthermore, 68% of Spaniards believe that Trump's presidency is harmful to Americans, and 61% fear it will have a negative impact on Spain, especially due to the imposition of tariffs (83%). However, only 4% fear that Trump will cause “ideological contagion” in Spain with the resulting rise of right-wing populism. Nuclear energy Following the general blackout that affected all of Spain on April 28 and the public debate surrounding it, the report shows a considerable increase in support for extending the life of nuclear power plants in Spain, which has risen from 43% to two-thirds (66%). Support is highest among men, younger people, and those on the right. This last, ideological, divide is the strongest, with the right twice as strong as the left in support for nuclear energy. The center is much closer to the right than to the left on this issue.

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