Carlos Uriarte Sánchez
Professor of Law and analyst of international relations
Iwould like to begin these lines by making a balance of the past year 2024, taking into account the New Year’s speech of the president of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, different interviews made during this month to him, such as the one carried out by the Kazakh newspaper “Ana tili”, a Kazakh language publication that will celebrate this year 35 years since it launched its first issue. Moreover, these reflections are confirmed by my various visits, study and regular monitoring of the reform process initiated by the second president of the new Kazakhstan since the presidential elections of June 12, 2019 in which I had the privilege of being an international observer.
In this regard, Kazakhstan, a country located in Central Asia, the largest and most developed economy in the region, gained its independence from the USSR on December 16, 1991. A new state that is making a successful transition under the leadership of the first president and Elbassy (leader of the nation), Nursultan Nazarbayev. Politician during whose period a strong state was created, government institutions were established, a new capital was built, the country’s borders were legally defined, beneficial cooperation with many countries was promoted and numerous foreign investments came into the country. Like any long historical period (1991-2019) it has its lights and shadows, as is the case with the reign of our former head of state, H.M. King Juan Carlos I. We also had an attempted coup d’état on 23-F 1981. There were still deep misgivings within the previous regime. Juan Carlos I was able to unite all political forces around his leadership and the new Constitution of 1978 and to carry out a model transition to democracy. In Kazakhstan, President Kassym-Khomart Tokayev, saving the historical, cultural and idiosyncratic differences between our two countries, is carrying out a similar task, even though he also suffered a coup attempt in January 2022 and has been able to lead a profound process of economic, institutional, legal and constitutional reforms. A state with a presidential political system, which has gradually given the bicameral parliament, Senate (upper house) and Mazhilis (lower house), greater functions and influence. Territorially, it is a unitary state consisting of 17 provinces (oblystar) and three independent cities (qalalar), namely: Astana, Almaty and Shymkent, which possess a state character. In addition, the city of Baikonur is administered by Russia under an agreement that ends in 2050. There is a slow assumption of competences by the regions and a still being implemented process of electing governors and mayors that is more participatory and democratic.
In the words of President Tokayev and according to his own definition, a political system with “a strong president, an influential parliament and a responsible government”.
Reform process in the economic sphere in 2024
Thus, in 2024, modernization of utility and engineering infrastructure was carried out in all regions of the country. Eighteen million square meters of housing were built, 7 thousand kilometers of roads were constructed and repaired, new passenger terminals were opened at the airports of the cities of Almaty, Kyzylorda and Shymkent. The year also saw the implementation of major projects in the petrochemical, metallurgical and mining industries. It should be noted that the manufacturing sector has undergone remarkable development and has reached almost the same level within the country’s industrial structure as the extractive sector. In addition, in the agricultural sector, technology has been greatly modernized, reaching a record harvest in the last 10 years of almost 27 million tons of cereals. The country has carried out a process of systemic economic reforms, which in some cases have been hard and painful, but which are proving to be bearing fruit within the country’s five-year development.
Social reforms in the year 2024
Some examples of these are the assistance to families through the “National Fund – for Children”, as well as an increase in pensions, allowances, scholarships, salaries to civil servants. Hundreds of new schools, kindergartens and sports complexes were built throughout the country and more than ten branches of prestigious foreign universities were opened. There has also been a commitment to the development of mass sports and the strengthening of the creative potential of citizens.
2024 was also a complex year for the country, which suffered from floods in the spring that affected half its regions
After carrying out a positive response to the disaster in terms of speed of response, provision of resources and mobilization of troops from different ministries (defense, interior, emergency situations…) mobilizing approximately 63,000 personnel. The government has carried out a deep reflection and self-criticism, recognizing that many of the serious consequences could have been avoided if in the last decades due attention had been paid to the construction of protection dikes and other hydraulic infrastructures. Let us hope that our authorities will draw conclusions also after the DANA suffered in Valencia. Thus, in Kazakhstan, a new draft Water Code, i.e. a new comprehensive plan for water resources management, is being reviewed in parliament, which envisages the construction of more than 40 new reservoirs and the rehabilitation of the 37 existing ones in the country, as well as the modernization of more than 14,000 kilometers of irrigation canals. The Kazakh National University of Water Resources and Irrigation has also been established to strengthen research and address the shortage of water resource specialists. An example of Kazakh leadership in this area was the One Water Summit held in Saudi Arabia in early December under the chairmanship of France and Kazakhstan. This shows that water security and climate change issues are priorities for the Central Asian country.
The solidarity and transparent response to the crash of the Azerbaijan Airlines flight
Kazakhstan was also able to respond effectively and in solidarity to the December 25 crash of an Azerbaijani airliner in the city of Aktau, Mangystau region, which killed 38 passengers, including 6 Kazakh citizens. A governmental commission was organized. Seventeen international experts were invited, including representatives of ICAO and the Interstate Aviation Committee. The commission decided to send the black boxes of the crashed aircraft to Brazil, the country where the aircraft had been manufactured, for decryption, in order to ensure impartiality and objectivity in the investigation.
Reforms in favor of transparency, human rights and the rule of law
On the other hand, the country continues to make progress in favor of transparency, human rights and the rule of law as demonstrated by the commissions of inquiry to respond to Kazakh society and the international community to the events of January 2022, known as the “Qantar events”, which were particularly virulent in the cities of Aktau and Almaty. These protests used the social unrest over gas prices to trigger a coup attempt against the constitutional order. Fortunately, order and stability were maintained and decisive decisions were taken against the riot organizers and coup plotters to return to normality. Only through “Law and Order” where there is respect and rule of law can a truly just and democratic state be built. Undoubtedly, Kazakhstan is now a more independent and sovereign country even in such a turbulent geopolitical moment as the present one. All these reforms must take root in the Kazakh value system and become an integral part of the mentality of the population and of public life, for the laws must be respected by everyone as a whole, both by citizens and by the public authorities.
Likewise, an effective fight against organized crime and banditry is underway, as evidenced by the arrest of those involved in the murder of 16-year-old Sherzat Bolat, in the village of Talgar, northeast of the city of Almaty, while he was defending his father from an attack on his store by fiends. The case has shocked Kazakh society.
In the fight against corruption, the State is working in the fields of crime detection and risk prevention through an approach that reflects the best international standards, including those developed by the OECD.
Improving legislation: new legislative reforms
At the various meetings of the National Kurultay (National Council), a consultative body of the President of Kazakhstan, in which representatives of civil society and experts participate, new laws were proposed, adopted and pushed through in a clear example of productive collaboration between the State and society in the improvement of legislation: a law on the protection of women’s rights and children’s safety; a new law for a new voluntary Keleshek Savings System; a law for the reduction of excessive indebtedness of citizens; a law banning the sale and distribution of electronic cigarettes; a significant tightening for drug production; a law to combat gambling; stiffer penalties for vandalism against the property of others and violent behavior. Also, an important reform within the judicial system as of July 1, 2025, where 3 independent courts of cassation will be created, that is, for civil, administrative and criminal matters. The objective of this new system of specialized courts is for citizens to be able to turn to them when their rights are violated by state agencies. This reformist spirit is and will continue to be an integral part of the construction of the State.
Let us recall that this reformist impulse initiated by President Tokayev in 2019, had in June 2022, a very important support a high official turnout of 68% and with 77.1% of the participants of the participants voting in favor of the changes, which introduced important changes in the institutional balance of the existing powers especially by reducing the power of the president and strengthening the functions of the Parliament. These new constitutional provisions resulted in the early parliamentary elections of March 19, 2023 in which the Amanat party (former Nur-Otan) won the majority with 53.90% of the votes, i.e. 64 seats out of 98 deputies in the Mazhilis (lower house of Kazakhstan). The elections took place with the implementation of modifications in the electoral system to carry out a mixed system (partially proportional and district) for the allocation of seats.
An economy tending towards liberalization and adaptation to the socially-oriented economy
Measures are also being taken to support the tenge the national currency and analyzing various exchange and economic measures to avoid the pressure it is suffering against the dollar. And a fight against corruption and recovery of financial assets or other illegally obtained assets has been carried out since 2022, which has resulted in a return to the coffers of the State treasury of more than 2 trillion tenge, or 4.1 billion dollars, which are being invested in social policy.
An economic system that guarantees free private initiative and legal security. A policy of fair distribution of national wealth, which does not imply expropriation or forced distribution of property or assets. It seeks to achieve equality of competition and opportunities.
In the economic field, the government has asked for greater autonomy in the decision making process and after one year the country is growing at 4%. The country is growing economically and improving the welfare of citizens. The main goal of the government is to ensure stability, promote dynamic development, economic efficiency and increase labor productivity and create quality jobs. President Tokayev maintains a demanding position in achieving these goals vis-à-vis the government.
A country where youth is a priority
When you walk through the streets of Astana and especially Almaty, the green and park-like city of the country, you can see many young couples with several small children, students and children. Kazakhstan is a country that has a great human capital in its youth. And this importance is observed as the essence of the country’s strategy. The formation of the new generation with a sense of active patriotism and high cultural level. There are many young Kazakhs today who travel to study or work. I have met Kazakh students who were studying at the University of Santiago de Compostela, San Pablo-CEU University or Instituto de Empresa University, among others. The Kazakh state encourages the training of its young people abroad through the international scholarship “Boloshak”, in addition to internship programs for young scientists in research centers abroad and student exchanges with different countries, for example, through the Erasmus+ program of the European Union. It is also a way to project Kazakhstan’s brand in the world. The Kazakh government tries to create conditions for these specialists to work in the country or return after having acquired additional training abroad trying to avoid talent drain. This year 2025 has been declared the Year of Technical Professions, where young people should undoubtedly play a leading role.
Promoting the Kazakh language
The Kazakh language ranks 79th among the most widely spoken languages on the planet and is the subject of special protection. There is a special fund for its protection and promotion at the initiative of the Kazakh Language Society. Special attention is being paid to the incorporation of its use in new technologies (an artificial intelligence tool has even been created in the language). The Kazakh language plays an essential role in consolidating the unity of the Kazakh people. It is a “fashionable” language among young people who consider its knowledge to be a fundamental factor in their professional growth and success.
Ecology and sustainability as a policy of social awareness: the ecological campaign “Taza Qazaqstan” or “Clean Kazakhstan” and nuclear energy
In it, more than 3.8 million people participated, more than 3.2 million trees were planted and more than 1.5 million tons of garbage were collected. The responsibility for implementing the program lies with the akims (mayors), but it has relied on citizen collaboration. This is essential for these initiatives to take root in society.
In Kazakhstan, at this time and after an intense debate, a single time zone has recently been introduced following the recommendations of the Barcelona Declaration on Time Policies for a healthier life. A deep reflection and debate is being carried out with the participation of experts, scientists and regional representatives to finally take the best possible consensual decision in a balanced way.
With regard to nuclear power, on October 6, 2024, a national referendum was held in the country on the question, “Do you agree with the construction of a nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan?” Of the 12.2 million voters on the census, 8 million citizens (two-thirds of the electorate) participated in the vote. The yes vote won with 71.12% of the electorate. Those who voted yes did so with the conviction of achieving energy independence and security and the reduction of electricity imports from Russia.
The construction of a nuclear power plant is a sensitive issue in Kazakhstan, as thousands of people are still suffering the consequences of the nearly half a thousand atomic tests carried out during the Cold War in Semipalantinsk, in the northeast of the country.
At present, within the energy mix, the country depends for its electricity production 80% on coal mines (highly polluting sector), 15% on hydroelectric power plants and 5% on renewable energies.
In 2025 the bidding procedures will be carried out in which the idea is that a consortium will be created, where the general operator will be the Kazakh party as the client of the project. Russia’s Rosatom, China’s CNNC and other foreign companies such as South Korea’s KHNP, including some Western companies such as France’s EDF have shown interest in the project. Moreover, Kazakh President Tokayev does not rule out the construction of a second and even a third nuclear power plant given the energy deficit the country is facing.
The Russian company Rosatom is building a nuclear power plant in neighboring Uzbekistan. An international consortium could be produced. We should remember that Kazakhstan is the world’s largest uranium producer.
Government projects for 2025
- Transport infrastructure:
In the summer of 2024, a new National Infrastructure Plan was approved for five years, i.e. until 2029; it envisages more than 200 projects with an investment of more than 40 billion tenges. Among them we can highlight: 1) Within the railway sector, the completion of 836 km of the second track of the “Dostyk-Moyynty” railway section, the bypass of Almaty station and the renewal of the wagon fleet will be continue
- Energy sector:
In relation to the energy sphere, major projects with a total capacity of more than 600 megawatts will be developed. Likewise, green energy will have a significant boost since agreements have been closed to build solar, hydroelectric and solar plants with foreign investors. The construction of the Tengiz Field Future Expansion Project and the expansion of the production capacity of the Aktau bitumen plant will be completed. It is in Aktau that Tecnicas Reunidas is participating in the construction of a petrochemical plant in the Morport Aktau Special Economic Zone of Manguistau, which will become the largest producer of mineral fertilizers in Kazakhstan. The Taldykorgan-Usharal main gas pipeline, the fourth line of the Zhanaozen-Aktau gas pipeline and an automated gas distribution station in the Atyrau region will be put into operation.
- Automotive:
The mechanical engineering industry will continue to develop. New production lines for automobiles of leading world brands will be opened. Also, the manufacture of iron castings for internal combustion engines and drive axle components will start in Kostanay.
- Social sector:
With regard to social infrastructure, we will continue to implement the National Rural Health Modernization Project, which provides for the construction of medical facilities in rural areas, the construction of 217 rehabilitated schools (105 of which have already been completed) to provide good learning conditions for students. In addition, new housing will be built to increase accessibility and 10,000 rental housing units will be promoted each year until 2029. To this end, Obasý Bank will become a development institution that will manage registration and distribution through a one-stop system. The budget of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2025-2027 maintains its social focus with significant investments in education, health and social needs.
- Digitalization:
According to the UN ranking, Kazakhstan ranks 24th in e-government development worldwide. Kazakh banks are creating their own digital ecosystems. The country is increasing the export of IT services and the Astana Hub is operating successfully. Also one of the country’s goals is to become one of the leading digital centers in the Eurasian space by opening an International Artificial Intelligence Center (Alem.AI) in Astana. By 2024 already 15 universities in the country taught AI courses of the Google company. Kazakhstan is becoming an increasingly attractive destination for so-called global digital nomads. Currently, the deputies of the Parliament have initiated the drafting of a law on artificial intelligence.
- Entrepreneurship:
A law on entrepreneurship aimed at creating favorable conditions for entrepreneurs has recently been adopted. The Kazakh state supports SMEs through subsidies, credit guarantees and preferential loans. This sector employs almost 4.3 million people (almost half of the country’s working population). The State is also interested in the development of large companies. There is also a good public-private partnership in the social field. Numerous foreign companies are also opening offices in the country, which is leading to an internationalization of the Kazakh market.
Recently, the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific in its 2024 report highlighted that Kazakhstan had last year $15.7 billion of foreign direct investment for new projects, that is, an increase of 88% compared to 2023. This indicator shows that almost two-thirds (63%) of foreign direct investments in the Central and North Asia region took place in Kazakhstan.
- Year dedicated to celebration of Great Victory 80th anniversary:
The commemoration of the victory in WWII over Nazism will have an important place in the state agenda. It should be recalled that the Kazakhs made an outstanding contribution to the defeat of Nazism by fighting heroically on all fronts, as well as by supplying armaments, industrial goods and food to the army of the Soviet Union of which the then Kazakh SSR was a part.
Its consolidation in the international community as a constructive actor in the establishment of dialogue for peace
We have to take into account that geography in politics and in the field of international relations is key, and Kazakhstan is located in the middle of Central Asia, between Russia and China, and therefore, it is no stranger to unprecedented global geopolitical tensions where there are also other powers with interests in the region as well as those previously mentioned such as the United States, the European Union and Turkey itself with which Kazakhstan also has deep historical cultural ties. Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the Russian influence in the country is less, but undoubtedly the years of influence of the Tsarist and Soviet russias remain in time. Nevertheless, Kazakhstan in this complex scenario has maintained an intelligent multivectorial foreign policy, asserting its sources of wealth based on hydrocarbons, gas and oil, but also knowing how to diversify its economy in other important areas such as those listed above. Kazakhstan is a member of the OSCE (Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe), the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), NATO’s Partnership for Peace and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as a result of this responsible multivectoral foreign policy as a middle power member of the international community.
President Tokayev considers that the system of international relations is in crisis and instability among the great powers is increasing. The UN Security Council is, in practice, paralyzed. All this affects and hinders the economic and social development of many countries. Therefore, Kazakhstan as a rising middle power can play an active role together with other middle powers can build new solid bridges between the geopolitical poles in conflict contributing, in this way, to reduce the level of confrontation experienced globally.
- Bilateral relations with Russia:
The two countries are linked by historic economic and cultural ties. They also share the longest land border in the world. In November 2024, the Russian President paid an official visit to discuss the bilateral agenda in the trade, economic, transport and logistics, energy, cultural and educational sectors. In this dialogue, mutual understanding was strengthened on the current problems of bilateral cooperation and on the international agenda. And the Kazakh President had an opportunity to explain the principles of Kazakhstan’s multilateral foreign policy compatible with a strategic partnership and alliance with Russia. Vladimir Putin was accompanied by almost half of the Russian government, which demonstrates the importance Russia attaches to Kazakhstan in the current context. Likewise, the Russian president has visited Kazakhstan 33 times, being this country the one he has visited the most times. Both countries play a fundamental role in the stability of Eurasia.
- Relations with the People’s Republic of China:
In 2023, Kazakhstan and China agreed on a mutual visa-free regime and continued development of cooperation is a central task in Kazakh diplomacy. China is its first trading partner and is one of the largest investors in the country’s economy. There is a willingness by both countries to double their mutual trade. The Central Asia-China summit will take place in Kazakhstan this year. Both countries have dynamic and multifaceted relations, which could be summarized as an eternal strategic partnership. It is noteworthy that Kazakh President Tokayev is fluent in Chinese and this facilitates his special relationship with President Xi Jinping.
- Bilateral relations with the United States:
Kazakh President Tokayev has had the opportunity to participate in the establishment of Kazakh-American relations since the mid-1990s. These three decades have seen the development of a shared vision of priorities between the two countries: trade and investment cooperation, security and nuclear non-proliferation. These fields are the pillar on which future relations between the two countries, and thus with the new Trump administration, will be built. Kazakhstan is an important strategic partner of the United States.
With regard to the Ukrainian war, Kazakhstan has been advocating since the beginning of the war for the start of negotiations to achieve peace and the country is always ready to help in the resolution of international problems.
- Cooperation with Turkic states:
Last year Kazakhstan, when the organization was celebrating its 15th anniversary, chaired the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) of which it was one of its founding countries in 2009. In 2024, the volume of mutual trade between the organization’s members exceeded $45 billion. The important role played by these countries in the implementation of the International Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor should be noted. During the Kazakh chairmanship, cooperation in political, economic, trade, transport, logistics, cultural and humanitarian areas was intensified. The countries of the Turkic community plan to expand their cooperation in such fields as energy, industry, digitalization and agriculture. In Astana, the 5th World Nomad Games were held from September 8 to 13. The motto of the presidency was: “TURKTIME”, an abbreviation summarizing its eight priorities: traditions, unification, reforms, knowledge, trust, investments, mediation and energy.
- Cooperation with the European Union:
We should take into account that the relations with it are framed in the Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement) of 2015, signed between the EU and Kazakhstan precisely ten years ago in Astana. Likewise, it is based on the overall EU Strategy for Central Asia. The European Union is the first trade and investment partner in Kazakhstan, supporting the economic reforms and modernization policies being led by President Tokajev.
On October 14, 2024, the 20th EU-Kazakhstan Cooperation Council took place in Luxembourg. At it, both sides confirmed their willingness to broaden and deepen their collaboration and to analyze and develop the full potential of the Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement. The risk of misinformation and misinformation was discussed. The European Union also highlighted the excellent cooperation with Kazakhstan during its membership in the UN Human Rights Council for the period 2022-2024.
The enhanced cooperation between Kazakhstan and the EU also seeks to strengthen transport connectivity, especially through the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor project within the framework of the European Union’s Global Gateway strategy. Likewise, Kazakhstan actively participated in the high-level political inauguration event that took place in the capital of Turkmenistan, Ashgabat, on October 3, 2024, in the presence of the then European Commissioner for International Partnerships, Jutta Urpilainen. In addition, the EU and Kazakhstan have initialed a horizontal aviation agreement in parallel to the Cooperation Council. Furthermore, the two sides cooperate in the field of key and critical raw materials, and a new roadmap for the period 2025-2027 is expected to be agreed soon. Kazakhstan’s participation November 2023 in the EU Raw Materials Week and its accession in 2024 to the Minerals Assurance Partnership should be noted. The EU bloc and Kazakhstan are also preparing negotiations for a visa facilitation agreement as well as a readmission agreement. Kazakhstan plays an important role in European energy security. Moreover, the Union supports the development of renewable energies. Kazakhstan receives EU investments from a specific multi-annual indicative program for the period 2021-2027 with the objective of implementing the Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement through a cooperation mechanism for the promotion of sustainable economic growth and the rule of law. Kazakhstan actively participates in the Erasmus program and Marie Sklodowska-Curie actions within Horizon Europe, where there is great potential for Kazakh researchers to participate. The EU has different programs in Central Asia where both sides can collaborate, as well as in the situation in Afghanistan and other security challenges.
In conclusion, we can state that 2025 will be a year for Kazakhstan where it will continue to strengthen its economy, sovereignty and external position.
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