2025, between the reformist drive and the structural challenges of the European Union

Xabier González Barkos In 2025, the European Union faces a political and economic horizon full of challenges, but also opportunities. The entry into force of new institutional dynamics after the elections to the European Parliament in 2024, the implementation of the report on competitiveness prepared by Mario Draghi and the internal tensions in some of the key Member States mark the way towards a decisive year for the European project. In parallel, the debates on the enlargement of the EU, the readjustment of relations with the United Kingdom under a Labour government and the need to strengthen internal cohesion outline a complex but potentially transformative panorama. The scope for action of the Von der Leyen Commission and the new European Parliament With the closing of the current legislative cycle and the reconfiguration of the European Parliament after the 2024 elections, Ursula von der Leyen's European Commission will face the challenge of consolidating and implementing its last major initiatives, especially in areas such as the energy transition, digitalisation and tax reform. However, the new balance of power in the European Parliament, in which a greater weight of eurosceptic parties and political forces less aligned with the traditional agenda is expected, could limit the scope of its action. One of the most urgent priorities will be the negotiation of a revised budgetary framework that responds to growing social demands, the advance of the climate crisis and the geopolitical conflicts that are depleting community resources. The growing political polarisation in the European Parliament, with a foreseeable reinforcement of peripheral and dissident parties, will make it difficult to reach broad consensus. This context could push the Commission to seek ad hoc alliances and to strengthen its executive capacity through tools such as delegated acts, although this will not be free from criticism. The competitiveness report led by Mario Draghi, which advocates a strategic reindustrialisation of Europe based on technological and energy autonomy, will have a significant weight in the economic policy decisions of the EU. However, its implementation will require a consensus that is difficult to reach among the Member States, given the disparity of interests and different economic capacities. Northern European countries, such as the Netherlands or Sweden, could demand greater guarantees of fiscal sustainability, while southern economies, more affected by debt and inflation, will defend greater budgetary flexibility. France and Germany: a weakened axis? The traditional Franco-German alliance, a pillar of European integration, is going through one of its most critical phases in years. Germany, after years of economic leadership, is facing an unprecedented slowdown caused by dependence on Russian gas, the crisis in its automotive sector and the impact of the energy transition on its heavy industry. These tensions have fueled an internal debate on the effectiveness of the German economic model and have weakened Berlin's ability to lead European initiatives. For its part, France, under the presidency of Emmanuel Macron, is trapped in a spiral of social conflict and economic stagnation. The president's efforts to project European leadership have been limited by his internal unpopularity and the resistance of other member states to his vision of a more centralized Europe. This joint fragility calls into question the role of the Franco-German axis as a driver of reforms at a time when the EU needs agile responses to global challenges such as the green transition or technological competition with China and the United States. In this context, countries such as Spain or Italy could try to play a more prominent role in defining the European agenda. However, the ability of these nations to assume effective leadership will depend on their internal political stability and their ability to generate strong alliances with other Member States. Enlargement and geopolitical challenges The push towards a new phase of EU enlargement is gaining strength, especially following the acceptance of Ukraine and Moldova as candidate countries in 2022. The prospect of accession in the medium term for these states, together with the aspirations of the Western Balkans, represents a challenge of historic magnitude for the EU. It is not only a matter of extending the European legal and institutional framework to new territories, but also of ensuring that these countries can fully integrate in economic and political terms. Enlargement also raises questions about the future institutional design of the Union. The entry of new members will require reforms in the decision-making system to avoid blockages in areas such as foreign or fiscal policy, where the principle of unanimity is still maintained. It will also be essential to redefine budgetary priorities in order to balance the needs of current Member States with the demands of future members. At the same time, geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe will continue to set the agenda. Relations with Russia, which have been seriously strained following the invasion of Ukraine, will continue to be a source of instability. In this context, the EU will need to strengthen its neighbourhood policy and its defence capacity through mechanisms such as PESCO (Permanent Structured Cooperation). UK: a renewed partner? The arrival of a Keir Starmer-led Labour government in the UK could open a new stage in relations between London and Brussels. Although a return to the single market or the EU is not on the table, the new British executive is likely to seek to rebuild closer economic and political ties with the bloc. Sectors such as trade, security cooperation and the fight against climate change could become areas of mutual understanding. However, the wounds of Brexit are still far from healed. The UK will continue to face internal divisions over its relationship with Europe, especially in regions such as Scotland or Northern Ireland, where strong European aspirations persist. For the EU, it will be crucial to balance rebuilding pragmatic relations with the UK without giving the impression of rewarding its decision to leave the bloc. Conclusion: a 2025 of challenges and opportunities The year 2025 is shaping up to be a period of redefinition for the European Union. With a revamped Commission, a fragmented Parliament and an international context marked by geopolitical competition, the EU will have to navigate between the need to advance its internal integration and external pressures that demand rapid and effective responses. While internal tensions and the fragility of some of its key Member States complicate the outlook, the reformist drive emerging from initiatives such as the Draghi report or the prospect of enlargement offers a unique opportunity to revitalise the European project. The key will be in the capacity of the institutions and Member States to overcome divisions and build a common agenda that not only responds to current crises, but also charts a solid path forward.

Related Content

History of ‘Scarface’, a Nazi high command in Franco's Spain

Peter Paul Rubens: spy and ambassador just for the love of art

British Cemetery in Madrid: the final resting place for “heretic” diplomats

Rubén Darío, Nicaragua’s Ambassador to the Spain of Alfonso XIII

History of Piotr Potemkin and the first Russian embassy in Spanish history