José Antonio Gurpegui
Director of the Instituto Franklin-UAH and Professor of North American Studies at the University of Alcalá
The long-awaited news of Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race that will conclude on 5 November has come to pass. As I said a few weeks ago in this publication, it was only a matter of time before it happened. Some may consider the attack suffered by Trump as the cause of his resignation, but yesterday’s outcome was forged in the disastrous debate with his Republican challenger not yet a month ago. What’s more, the rumours, the back-and-forth about his eventual resignation have been going on since the very moment he announced his intention to run in the Democratic primaries in November last year.
In any case, all this is history at this point, and it makes no difference whether the decision to withdraw has to do with issues of the president’s precarious mental and physical health, with the dismal results predicted for him in the polls, or because of the embarrassing debate and execrable attack on Trump. It doesn’t matter whether Barack Obama had asked him to step aside, as the media claimed, or whether this never happened, as the president’s team claimed; nor does it matter whether donors had frozen their contributions to Biden’s candidacy. What is really important is what is going to happen in the Republican Party.
The fact that the national convention has not yet been held means that, although Joe Biden had the number of delegates necessary to win the nomination, he had not been officially designated as the Democratic candidate. The Chicago convention will therefore be an Open Convention for anyone running for the nomination, as no delegates are available. Some media are picking up on Nancy Pelosi’s supposed demand – apparently Biden is upset with her for withdrawing his support – to hold a sort of mini-primary; others are advocating a Gavin Newson candidacy – Governor of California -, Gretchen Whitmer – Governor of Michigan -, also the governors of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania… sound like ‘presidential candidates’. I very much doubt that any of these options will come to fruition, and if they do, it would be a mistake for the Democrats with consequences even worse than Joe Biden’s continuity.
Although the candidacy of the current vice-president Kamala Harris is a futuristic possibility, any analysis of Democratic success is inevitably based on Kamala. The bad press and low popularity she has had during her years as vice-president are forgotten in the current circumstances. As vice-president and as a one-time candidate for the presidential nomination, Ockham’s razor theory reveals that hers is the most natural choice. In addition, the president’s tweet endorsing her candidacy, key figures such as the Clintons and almost half of the congressmen have already expressed their support for her. She will also be able to draw on the almost 100 million dollars donated to the Biden/Harris candidacy that would be ‘lost’ if she is not the nominee.
But whatever else may be brewing in the Democratic kitchens, Harris’s candidacy looks like the best possible for the party. The most serious problem Biden was facing was the drain of votes from certain traditionally Democratic ‘niches’ such as women, ethnic minorities, young people, and, although not as numerous, Muslim voters. Kamala Harris would be a powerful boost for these groups that viewed Biden’s candidacy with pessimism. Her pro-women’s rights policies, although they may seem overly radical on issues such as abortion, will be of electoral benefit to her. The same goes for ethnic groups – she herself fits into this segment – and the young people who took over American universities.
I only have one doubt, even at the risk of being wrong in my predictions, regarding the candidate who will accompany her on the ticket as Vice-President. A candidate, I believe, who will have a social profile that is certainly similar to that of the Republican candidate J.D. Vance. The blue collar male vote is the other segment of the population that both contenders will try to conquer.
