José Antonio Gurpegui
Director of the Franklin Institute-UAH
This article was originally published in the Franklin Institute’s Atlantic Dialogue
Not since 30 March 1981, when President Ronald Reagan was assassinated in Washington, has there been an assassination attempt in the United States similar to the one carried out last Saturday by the former president and Republican candidate in pectore Donald Trump.
Paradoxically, the person who attempted to kill the candidate was a 20-year-old young man who had registered as a Republican voter for the November elections. Beyond this anecdote, the event occurred at a singular moment in the middle of the election campaign and when the candidacy of the current President Biden is being questioned in the Democratic ranks. What is more transcendental than a mere anecdote are the consequences that such a disruption will have on the campaign.
For Trump’s unconditional supporters, the events in Butler, Pennsylvania, represent the definitive proof of what their candidate has been denouncing, from the robbery suffered in the previous elections to the persecution to which judges and the media have subjected him. So much so that some senators are even asking the Pennsylvania prosecutor, who is responsible for the judicial process that is now beginning, to include President Biden in the proceedings, who is accused of instigating this type of action. Even Melania Trump, completely missing until the attack, blames the “inhuman political machine” for the failed assassination attempt. In any case, Donald Trump has gone from victim to hero for the average American citizen. His image with his face bloodied – the media power of blood is infinite -, the tense gesture, the raised fist, surrounded by the security service to protect his life, and the American flag waving in the wind give him an aura of heroism that not even the most seasoned publicist would have achieved in the best of his montages.
Messages of support and solidarity, sent by politicians from all walks of life, are pouring in from all corners of the world. In these circumstances, there are more than a few media outlets that are predicting an undisputed victory for Trump in the election on 5 November. They have no shortage of reasons or arguments for such a bet. Last June’s presidential debate had placed the Republican challenger far ahead of the current president both in terms of popular vote intention and in the key states of Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona, which will decide the winner. The technical tie between the two contenders prior to the debate was broken in Trump’s favour with leads of more than six points in some of the states mentioned.
Republican Nikky Haley argued in her party’s primaries that Trump was the only Republican whom Democrat Biden could beat. She may have been right, but in just two weeks the meaning of her axiom has taken on a radically different reading: Biden is the sure Democratic loser to Trump.
The Democrats, who were already putting pressure on the president after the aforementioned televised appearance to force his resignation, now have real arguments if the polls, as is foreseeable, give the Republican an insurmountable lead. In my view, Biden’s insistence on his determination to run as the Democratic candidate was more of a ploy than a stubbornness, as some described it, until the right person could be found to replace him. Resigning without a consensus candidate would, I have no doubt, be electoral suicide.
The alternative could well be Kamala Harris. During the four years of the Biden administration, the Vice President’s role has been more than secondary and her poll ratings did not exactly make her an unbeatable candidate. However, in the current circumstances, she may be the only option available to the Democrats. In Biden’s two television appearances in the last 24 hours, it is striking that in the first he was alone; the second, however, took place in the Oval Office and he was accompanied by Vice President Harris to his right. The reading is obvious.
Do the Democrats have time to present a new candidate? If so, it will be until 19 August, when they hold their national convention in Chicago. That date will mark the point of no return.
