Andrea Chamorro
Analyst at Fundación Alternativas
Africa Day (25 May) is celebrated in commemoration of the creation of the Organisation of African Unity (OAU). At the same time, it is a day that invites reflection on the continent’s achievements and the challenges it faces. Africa is set to play a key role in the future international system. One of the issues most highlighted is the youth of its population, in a territory that will reach 2.5 billion people by 2050, a quarter of the world’s population. According to the French Development Agency, in that year more than half of Africans will be under the age of 25.
In recent times we have witnessed important geopolitical changes on the continent that have had global repercussions. The Alliance of Sahel States, comprising Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, is moving towards increased cooperation in which confederation is envisaged. These countries are ruled by military juntas that have not given a concrete date for elections. The arrival of the military juntas in power has brought changes in international allies: Western countries have been relegated to the background in favour of Russia, China and various middle powers. The European Union Training Mission in Mali (EUTM) ended on 18 May, with Spain taking over its withdrawal. In turn, the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilisation Mission ended in June 2023, generating an imbalance in the tense relations between the armed actors in Mali.
Rejection of the Western presence has spread to more and more Sahelian countries. During the election campaign in Chad, in which the current leader of the military junta was running, the government called for a review of defence cooperation with the US. Niger has pursued a similar strategy almost simultaneously, and in May we learned that the withdrawal of US forces from the country will take place on 15 September.
The security challenges facing the Sahel region have increased over the past year, and the instability has had considerable implications for relations between Africa and Europe. The international scenario facing us today is radically different from that of a few years ago, and has led to a rewriting of a number of questions about the African continent that we in the West feared as dogma. The multipolar world we face today is dominated by the United States, China and Russia, but we should not underestimate middle powers such as Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, India and Iran. In this competitive environment, increasing influence in Africa has become a priority for extra-continental powers, and represents a window of opportunity and negotiation for African countries. Each state deploys a different strategy according to its capabilities. The case that has attracted the most attention in recent years has been that of the Wagner private security company in the Sahel countries, but China has made substantial economic cooperation agreements that do not have as immediate effects as military presence on the ground, but will be of paramount importance in the coming years.
Migration management has been one of the most debated issues in the last year. The instability in the Sahel region, the decline in the quality of life and the lack of future prospects have influenced the increase in displacements, with Senegal and Mauritania as the main countries of departure. Of the 56,852 irregular migrants who arrived in Spain in 2023, 70% had the Canary Islands as their destination. The island of El Hierro was of particular relevance in this area, with 14,000 people arriving there. This year the trend has continued, and the latest figures show 16,586 migrants arriving on the islands, a figure five times higher than the previous year. The precarious conditions in which irregular migration arrives have generated a humanitarian emergency. Spain and the EU have held numerous consultations with the governments of Senegal and Mauritania to try to manage migration channels. However, the measures have not been entirely effective, as the African governments have been overwhelmed.
Under the Spanish presidency of the European Union, an agreement was reached to conclude the Pact on Migration and Asylum. The aim was to unify migration arrival procedures and establish a system of solidarity between states in order to achieve more equitable management. This means trying to avoid a repetition of the migration crisis of 2015. The shaping of this treaty faced numerous challenges, as it was necessary to bring 27 countries into agreement, with particular reluctance on the part of the Visegrad group (Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia). The Migration and Asylum Pact has been strongly criticised by human rights organisations. Institutions such as Amnesty International, the Refugee Aid Commission and Médecins Sans Frontières have expressed their rejection and claimed that this new migration framework violates human rights.
This month, the European Council approved the Migration and Asylum Pact after a tense vote in the European Parliament. The vote was hotly contested, but ended up being endorsed by the House, with 300 votes in favour and 270 against. The implementation of the agreement will mark a turning point in migration policies and in Europe’s relations with the African continent.
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