The Diplomat
The Bank of Spain estimates that the country will need 24,673 million more immigrants of working age in 2053 to avoid the population aging process in which the country is immersed and resolve the imbalances that could arise in the Spanish labor market in the future.
As the Bank warns in the ‘2023 Annual Report’, published yesterday, one of the biggest challenges that the main world economies will have to face in the coming years is the aging of the population.
The extraordinary magnitude of this challenge is determined not only by the magnitude of the demographic changes that are underway, but also by the numerous implications that these changes have, for example, for the economy’s capacity for growth, for the dynamics of the labor market and for the evolution of public income and expenses, Europa Press reports.
In this context, migratory flows have registered very high dynamism in recent years, but it does not seem likely that they will be able to avoid the population aging process in which Spain is immersed, nor completely resolve the imbalances that could arise in the market. of Spanish work in the future.
“The capacity of migratory flows to appreciably mitigate the population aging process is limited,” warns the Bank of Spain in its report.
For the dependency rate in 2053 to remain at 26.6% now, given that those over 66 years of age projected by the INE are estimated at 14,847,105, a group between 16 and 66 years of age of 55,897,931 people would be needed.
According to the assumptions of the INE, in 2053, there would be 12,355,237 born abroad between 16 and 65 years old and 18,870,103 born in Spain, so if this last number is maintained, it would be required that in 2053 there would be 37,027,828 immigrants from between 16 and 65 years old.
That is, in 2053, 24,673 million more immigrants of working age would be needed. This is not an estimate of the number of immigrants that should arrive in Spain (flow), but rather how much the stock should have increased on that date.
