The Diplomat
Raz Zimmt, senior researcher at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), said yesterday at a breakfast with journalists in Madrid that he would be “surprised” if Iran did not retaliate against Israel after the bombing of the Iranian Consulate in Damascus, in which the General of the Revolutionary Guard, Mohammad Reza Zahedi, was killed.
The Iranian response, according to this expert, will not be immediate. In this sense, he alluded to Iran’s “strategic patience”, which “is not like the West, but always seeks a slower retaliation”, although he pointed out that there are currently voices in Iran clamouring for immediate retaliation.
Raz Zimmt, who worked for 24 years in Israeli military intelligence, said that Iran’s retaliation would most likely be directed at targets outside Israel, such as an embassy, “using drones or missiles”. However, he ruled out that such targets could be located in Europe.
The selection of these targets, according to Zimmt, would depend on three key factors: whether Iran sets aside its usual strategy of avoiding a direct confrontation with Israel; whether it is willing to take greater risks; and whether it calculates that a direct attack against Israel could lead to an escalation of the conflict.
The Israeli researcher, a specialist in Iranian affairs, explained that Iran’s retaliation against Israel has usually been carried out through its proxies, such as Hezbollah, in order to avoid a face-to-face confrontation. Zimmt believes that, in this case, the Iranian authorities will not allow themselves to be dragged into a direct conflict with Israel and will avoid a direct attack on their territory, which would mean an immediate Israeli response against Iranian territory.
On the other hand, Zimmt assured that “there is no way to totally eradicate Hamas, since it is a movement” that is deeply rooted in Gaza. He said that the aim of the Israeli military operation is to put an end to Hamas’s capabilities in Gaza and to make sure that it cannot regain them in the future.
