The Diplomat in Spain

SUMMARY

Óscar Ruiz / Escudo Digital

In this year 2024, the ideal situation for Russian President Vladimir Putin is that Donald Trump becomes White House President and cuts off military supplies to Ukraine (and Europe) in whole or in part. That is why the Russian disinformation machine has already been set in motion to put Trump back in charge of the United States for the next four years.

And it seems that Russian disinformation is now focused on the problem of US immigration, the real target being Ukraine.

As on other occasions, online elements linked to the Kremlin have begun to promote disinformation about US immigration through Texas, in an apparent attempt to target and manipulate US voters for the 2024 elections.

The truth is that for Vladimir Putin, victory in Ukraine could go through the state of Texas, as evidenced by the fact that in recent weeks Russian state media and Kremlin-linked online accounts have disseminated and amplified misleading and inflammatory content about US immigration and border security.

Just as happened in Afghanistan when President Trump announced the exact date for the departure of US troops from the country, aiding the Taliban offensive and morally defeating the Afghan army, Trump’s continued announcements of a total halt in military aid to Kiev for its defence against Moscow could be having a beneficial effect on Putin who sees only advantages in the billionaire’s return to the White House, and is therefore going to invest all his time and means to achieve it.

These disinformation accounts, whether in social media posts, online videos and website articles, are dedicated to misrepresenting and exaggerating the impact of immigration coming through Central America, highlighting stories of crimes committed by migrants and warning of dire consequences if Washington does not crack down hard and fast on its border with Mexico.

While the main mission of Russian disinformation services has so far been to continue to damage Ukraine, there has been a shift towards the US to concentrate their efforts there.

“Things have changed, even in the last few days,” said Kyle Walter, head of research at Logically, a technology company that tracks disinformation campaigns. While experts and government officials have long warned about Russia’s intentions, Walter said the content detected so far this year “is the first indication I’ve seen that Russia is really going to target the US election”.

This month, Logically identified dozens of pro-Russian accounts posting about US immigration, with a particular interest in promoting recent anti-immigration demonstrations in Texas. A recent Logically assessment concluded that after two years devoted primarily to the war in Ukraine, Russia’s disinformation apparatus has “begun 2024 with a focus on the US”.

Recently, disinformation attacks focused on the recent death of a Georgia nursing student and the arrest of a Venezuelan man who had entered the US illegally and was allowed to stay to pursue his immigration case. The murder quickly became a rallying cry for former president Donald Trump and other Republicans who suggest that migrants commit crimes more often than US citizens, even though the evidence does not support those claims. The fact is that the content, produced in English, has quickly found its way onto the most popular websites and platforms among US voters, so the damage has already been done.

The power of dissuasion and penetration of social media, mixed with the populism of Donald Trump, is certainly a bombshell and easy fodder for Russian intelligence services who are going to attack Biden’s policies with everything they have in order to elevate Donald Trump. But beware, such an unpredictable president could backfire on Putin.

ÓSCAR RUIZ

International analyst and migration expert

Career Marine with more than 30 years of experience. Nine years stationed at NATO Headquarters in Belgium and Sarajevo developing intelligence and information security functions.

Military missions in Africa, America and Europe. Lecturer and speaker on subjects such as jihadist terrorism, migration challenges and maritime security.