SUMMARY
After the Republican and Democratic presidential nominations for November were confirmed, US electoral uncertainty is reduced to three factors: independent candidates, the trials of Donald Trump and the question of the age of both candidates.
Pedro Rodríguez / Instituto Franklin
There was a time when the two major political parties in the United States demonstrated their strength and security by using a gradual and orderly primary process to select their presidential candidates with the help of the popular vote. Republicans and Democrats, however much they held back at their national conventions, were able to organise a competitive selection mechanism to select viable candidates with the help of the popular vote. They even went so far as to invent Super Tuesday, a kind of “sudden death” with simultaneous voting in a significant number of states in order to have a frontrunner by mid-March at the latest.
That golden age of American politics, which began with the first election of Franklin Delano Roosevelt in 1932, is long over. It was killed by all and it died alone, unable to overcome the gerontocracy, the devastation of national-populism and the deep hole in which the two political parties that have dominated American politics have found themselves. Indeed, this fundamental crisis in the ranks of the Democrats (unable to find a replacement for Biden-Harris) and Republicans (overshadowed by Donald Trump) has once again been exposed by the past unsurprising Super Tuesday, as useless as a calendar from last year.
Once again, in less than 225 days, the presidential election scheduled for 5 November will be a rematch between Trump and Biden. A big geriatric booze-up so dull that Americans are turning away from watching election coverage on television, much to the chagrin of the major networks who were hoping to balance their books with another lucrative cycle of reality-politics. However, the tedious rerun of “Biden vs. Trump” is proving rather disastrous, to the point that interested audiences have halved.
Only the judiciary and the press are able to liven up this soporific apocalypse without trumpets. In a decision hastened by the election calendar, the US Supreme Court has ruled unanimously that Donald Trump’s candidacy cannot be removed from the primary ballot at the state level. Never mind his alleged participation in an insurrection against the federal government, as outlined in the 14th amendment to the Constitution passed after the Civil War to disqualify leaders of the Confederate insurrection.
The New York Times has also tried to liven things up by publishing an entertaining poll of voters registered to vote in November: if the presidential election were held not eight months from now but today, former President Trump would have a 5% lead over President Biden. Weighed down by doubts about his leadership within his own electorate and general dissatisfaction about the direction of the nation, Biden has 43% support, behind Trump’s 48%, according to the national poll released as the general campaign has de facto begun early.
As has become the norm in the elections of America’s battered democracy, the occupant of the White House will be decided by a few thousand votes in half a dozen states of the Union, based on a trinity of issues consisting of the economy, abortion and the border. The only decision that remains to be made is who Trump will choose as his number two among the frikipandi of hopefuls assembled to make Vice-President Mike Pence, so unsuccessful in more ways than one, forget.
With the presidential nominations confirmed, US electoral uncertainty is reduced to three factors: independent choices, Trump’s trials and the age issue. Traditionally in American politics, the prominence of third-party candidates reflects discontent with the status quo, however jealously the two major parties guard their duopoly. This time Robert Kennedy junior stands out, with his muscular mix of nostalgia and conspiracy theories.
A second unknown is the judicial outlook for Trump, who is doing his best to delay his multiple prosecutions in order to enter the dystopia of winning the election and self-annihilation. The one case most likely to be decided in time is the most trivial: the trial for paying Stormy Daniels, a porn star, to keep quiet in the 2016 campaign and disguising it as legal expenses.
And finally, the third factor of uncertainty is the age of the candidates. Biden and Trump will be the oldest and second oldest candidates in history. As insurance actuaries are well aware, the odds of what is politely called a “health problem” occurring are much higher than usual.
PEDRO RODRÍGUEZ
Journalist
He is a professor of International Relations and a teaching and research associate at the Franklin Institute. As a journalist, he was the Washington correspondent for the ABC newspaper for twenty years. He is now a columnist and analyst of international affairs for a several audiovisual media, and director of content for the magazine ‘Política Exterior’.
He is a Fulbright scholar and has a Master’s degree (M.A. 96) from Georgetown University, and furthered his studies at Johns Hopkins and Harvard Universities. Fellow of the Aspen Institute Spain, his doctoral thesis is devoted to the political communication of the White House.
