SYNOPSIS
In next November’s presidential election, Americans will see a revival of the confrontation between Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump. It is not what they would want, but it is what they will get. It demonstrates the stagnation of the American electoral and political system, which is crying out to be updated.
Nicolás Pascual de la Parte
Good novels and great stories begin with a memorable sentence. This was the case in Leo Tolstoy’s Anna Karenina “all happy families resemble one another, but unhappy families are each in their own way”; or in the preamble to Karl Marx’s Communist Manifesto “a ghost haunts Europe: the ghost of communism”. Well, the story of the upcoming US presidential election could begin with “two old gunmen met at the OK Corral”.
It is surprising, if not alarming, that the American political system is incapable of renewal and can only offer the voters of a vibrant and dynamic society the choice between two venerable old men in their 80s, above (Biden) or below (Trump). This bipartisan gerontocracy, once a prominent attribute of the Chinese Communist Party, is evidence of a multiple arteriosclerosis afflicting the organism of the great American Republic, which increasingly distances its political class from its civil society. The causes that have led to this situation are manifold, and will be the subject of future analyses by The Diplomat in Spain.
The undeniable relevance of the policies pursued by the occupant of the White House to the daily lives of the world’s inhabitants has led many to wish that all citizens of the world should participate in some way in the election of such a decisive magistrate for the fate of humanity. Until that moment arrives or not, we friends of that great country can only analyse the facts and assess the underlying trends coming from the other side of the Atlantic with a view to trying to anticipate events and take positions.
Trump’s back-to-back victories in the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries, a feat never before achieved by any other Republican candidate (and with more than 50 per cent of the vote in both states), put the tycoon’s nomination virtually on track for the Republican Convention in Milwaukee. If the profile of the agricultural state of Iowa, with an overwhelmingly white population of mostly German origin and evangelical religion, made it an easy place for Trump, this was not the case in New Hampshire, with a majority of moderate Republican voters and the participation of numerous independents in the voting. But in both states, he polled well over 50 per cent of the vote, demonstrating his firm grip on the elephant’s party. A message understood by Florida Governor De Santis, who withdrew his candidacy after his fiasco in Iowa, but not by Nikki Haley, former Governor of South Carolina and former UN Ambassador, who declared herself ready to stay in the race. The next stop is precisely on 24 February in her home state of South Carolina, where a more than foreseeable adverse result will be the final nail in her coffin.
Trump’s two consecutive victories in the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries, a feat never before achieved by any other Republican candidate (and with more than 50% of the vote in both states), leave the tycoon’s nomination practically on track during the Republican Convention in Milwaukee. If the profile of the agricultural state of Iowa, with an overwhelmingly white population of mostly German origin and evangelical religion, made it an easy place for Trump, this was not the case in New Hampshire, with a majority of moderate Republican voters and the participation of numerous independents in the voting. But in both states, he polled well over 50 per cent of the vote, demonstrating his firm grip on the elephant’s party. A message understood by Florida Governor De Santis, who withdrew his candidacy after his fiasco in Iowa, but not by Nikki Haley, former Governor of South Carolina and former UN Ambassador, who declared herself ready to stay in the race. The next stop will be precisely on 24 February in her home state of South Carolina, where a more than predictable adverse result will be the final nail in her coffin.
The big question mark for Trump’s aspirations, highlighted by the New Hampshire result, is otherwise well known: his difficulty in attracting to his camp the independent and moderate vector of the electorate that is indispensable for his return to the White House.
For his part, President Biden won an overwhelming majority of 70% of the vote in the New Hampshire Democratic primary, which he did not even run in, due to differences over electoral calendars with the governor. It is true that he had an easier time than his Republican opponent, as in the US a President running for re-election usually has the close support of his party. Biden, a very weakened, questioned and unpopular president, is pinning his chances of staying in the White House on the fact that his rival is precisely Trump and not someone else, convinced that he can rally behind him the entire anti-Trump vote in the country.
There is still a long campaign ahead, but two old acquaintances know they have a date in the sun.
NICOLÁS PASCUAL DE LA PARTE
Ambassador of Spain
Born on 21 April 1959, Pascual de la Parte holds a degree in Law and joined the diplomatic service in 1987. From February 2012 to 2017 he held the post of Ambassador representing Spain in the Political and Security Committee of the Council of the European Union (COPS). In 2017 he was appointed Ambassador of Spain to NATO and in 2020 Ambassador-at-Large for Cybersecurity and Hybrid Threats of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, a post he has held until the end of 2023.
He has also been secretary at the Spanish Embassy in Ireland and deputy assistant director general for Community Coordination for Technical Affairs, and for Customs and Trade Affairs of the European Union. He was an advisor in the Cabinet of the President of the Government and in 2004 he was assigned to the Early Warning Policy Unit of the General Secretariat of the Council of the European Union. He was also Spanish Ambassador to the Republic of Honduras.
