Jorge Dezcallar
Ambassador of Spain
The increase in tension in th Middle East worries the world and snatches the front pages of newspapers to the war in Ukraine. I guess Putin is very happy for at least three reasons: first of all, because that means less weapons and less money for Kiev (at the moment there are a total of 100,000 million euros blocked by Hungary in Europe and by the Republican Congress); secondly, because it keeps the US bogged down in the Middle East and paying less attention to Russia and China and, thirdly, because when the world compares the Western reaction to the American invasion of Iraq in 2003, the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territory, the remote origin of the current Gaza conflict, accusations of double standards are produced that bring water to the Chinese and Russian mills between the countries that are part of the Global South. That’s why I wouldn’t be surprised if they had toasted Gaza both in Moscow and in Beijing.
Open confrontation with Iran
The fronts open to Israel are many and all are important, starting with the domestic front demanding that the government rescue the hundred or so hostages still held by Hamas in what amounts to a war crime. Without their release, the guns will not fall silent. On the other hand, Netanyahu knows that once the conflict is over, the internal unity that provoked the war will disappear and it will be very difficult for him to survive politically, both because of the security lapses and the accusations of corruption that he has been facing for years.
On the external front, the greatest danger is posed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, which is quietly increasing its uranium enrichment, moving ever closer to the possibility of acquiring nuclear weapons (which, among other consequences, would unleash an undesirable arms race in the region), while it moves its pawns in the Middle East in the shadows and without showing its face: the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the militias it controls in Syria and Iraq. They are joined in their harassment of Israel by the West Bank Palestinians themselves, among whom the Israelis have already killed a couple of hundred.
The Iranian tactic is to throw the stone and hide the hand. At least as far as possible because it has also hijacked an oil tanker off the coast of Oman. As a result, the risk of the Gaza crisis metastasising in the Middle East is growing. To calm tempers, Washington has sent two aircraft carriers and their battle groups to the area, which may inadvertently contribute to an increase in tension.
Hezbollah is Israel’s most dangerous enemy after Iran, with which it is allied. It has a huge arsenal of rockets (150,000) which it is gradually firing at Israel, especially after the latter killed a couple of senior Hamas and Hezbollah commanders in Beirut in what it considered a provocation, and perhaps is a provocation. The result is that 150,000 people have had to be evacuated on both sides of the Lebanese-Israeli border in a situation that is impossible to sustain in the medium term. At the same time, US bases in Syria and Iraq are under attack by local militias allied with Iran, forcing Washington to reinforce them in manpower and equipment. Iraq’s president has recently reiterated his desire to see a withdrawal of US troops from his territory.
In solidarity with Hamas, the Houthis attack ships crossing the Bab el Mandeb strait, whose waters are protected by international law. As a result, major shipping lines linking Asia and Europe have decided to bypass the Suez Canal (12% of world maritime traffic, 15% of oil traffic) and turn around the African continent, resulting in a sharp increase in freight costs.
To protect shipping in the Red Sea, the US has launched Operation Prosperity Guardian, which has bombed Houthi positions in Yemen in retaliation, raising already high environmental tensions many notches. Spain has refused to participate despite US insistence. I am sure that the government has good reasons for acting as it does, but it should explain them clearly because freedom of navigation also affects us and because it is perplexing to receive congratulations from the Houthis and expressions of unease from the Americans at the same time. This government has not explained much, nor has it explained the turnaround on the Sahara.
The US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, and the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, are touring the region trying to calm tempers and prevent the conflict from spreading, because that would be bad news for the world and in particular for Biden, who faces a difficult election next November and whose popularity rating is very low, among other reasons due to criticism of his policy on the Gaza conflict, which, as a consequence, is also increasing tension between Washington and Jerusalem.
How good it would be to reach a ceasefire that would calm tempers and allow humanitarian aid to reach Gaza! It would only take two things: Hamas would have to return all the hostages it is holding in violation of all the laws of war, and Washington would have to stop sending arms to Israel. The obstacle to the first condition lies with Hamas, and to the second with US domestic politics.
Apart from the very real risk of an extension of the Gaza conflict, which no one wants, there is the risk of a false end to the current crisis, as has always been the case in the past. Avoiding this requires confronting the Palestinian problem, which Israel has refused to do for many years, because there can be no security for Israel without justice for the Palestinians, who also have the right to their own state, as King Felipe VI has just recognised.
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