Eduardo González
In a global context marked by “the ballot boxes and weapons”, everything indicates that the beginning of a new legislature in Spain “will not alter the recent guidelines of Spanish foreign policy”, although “there is a danger that the European agenda will become international is contaminated” by the political polarization between the new Government of Pedro Sánchez and the opposition.
This is one of the main conclusions of the report on Spain’s role in the world, prepared for the twelfth consecutive year by the Elcano Royal Institute and which was presented yesterday at the Espacio Bertelsmann, in Madrid.
According to the document, titled Spain in the world in 2024: perspectives and challenges, the year 2023 has been marked, among other factors, by the two wars in Ukraine and Gaza “and their very diverse effects” and by the continuity of the Euro-Atlantic unity in the geopolitical sphere, although with a growing distance between the West and the so-called “global south”. Likewise, and from a Spanish perspective, the year revolved around the Presidency of the Council of the European Union, “with abundant achievements that have been partly marred by the tense political context dominated by elections and the complex formation of a government.”
Looking ahead to 2024, the Elcano Policy Paper continues, everything indicates that global prominence will fall (in the words of one of the report’s coordinators, Ignacio Molina) on the binomial “ballot boxes and weapons”, since, if, on the one hand, The world faces the continuity of war scenarios, on the other hand, Europe and the United States will face key electoral processes “that will decide if the disruptive Donald Trump returns to the White House and if the traditional consensus in favor of advancing the integration is broken in the European institutions.”
In this context, according to the authors of the study, Spain faces a newly launched legislature “with the challenge that internal and external polarization does not destabilize the core of foreign policy” and that structural challenges can be addressed: climate, innovation, security. , development cooperation and migrations.
According to the authors of the Elcano Policy Paper, the Spanish Presidency of the Council of the EU in the second half of 2023 “has been intense and fruitful”, but “the turbulent internal political scenario that has framed the semester leaves the feeling of a lost opportunity for a “significant advance in the influence of Spain.” “The beginning of a new legislature will not alter the recent foreign policy guidelines, although there is a danger that the European and international agenda will be contaminated by the polarization between the renewed government and the opposition,” the document adds.
Gaza, Europe and Spain
In 2024, the report continues, the panorama will continue to be marked by the evolution of the wars in Ukraine, where Euro-Atlantic unity is maintained for now, and in Gaza, “where Spanish diplomacy maintains a critical stance towards Israel not entirely shared by good. part of its European partners.”
According to one of the authors of the study, Haizan Amirah Fernández, the Gaza war has widened the gap between the West, on the one hand, and the “global south,” on the other, especially in the case of the EU, where, “unlike of unity against Ukraine, in Gaza the opposite has happened: there has been division, lack of coordination and fractures.”
On the other hand, he assured, this conflict has contributed to improving, in relative terms, the image of Spain in the “global south”, in which “Spain’s positions have been understood” in favor of Israel’s right to defend itself, but within of International Law, and the holding of a peace conference for a two-state solution. In this context, according to the researcher, Spain should develop “a national strategy” towards the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates), because “it is necessary to be present in a region in which there is a lot at stake.”
As for Europe, the report indicates that, in a context of uncertainties due to the elections to the European Parliament and possible “ideological rebalances” due to the rise of Eurosceptic movements in several Member States – which, inevitably, would affect a “key” body in the response to the latest crises” such as the European Council -, Spain takes advantage of having a President of the Government who is “one of the most senior members of the European Council, especially in the social democratic family.” In addition, the change of Government in Poland “is an opportunity to deepen relations with an important partner of similar size.” However, according to researcher Raquel García, Spain also faces its “weaknesses”, especially the “internal political situation”, which can negatively affect the adoption of “important solid positions in the negotiation process that will begin after the European parliamentary elections.”
International image of Spain
The Elcano study indicates that the year 2023 “has not altered the international prestige of Spain, which continues to occupy a very high position in global reputation rankings.” However, he warns that “it remains to be seen how the external perception of the amnesty law and the domestic reaction it has aroused affect these data.” Therefore, in its most pessimistic scenario, the report warns of the risk that “the parliamentary weakness of the Government and the internal tension contaminate foreign and European policy, preventing Spain from being active in the debate on the reform and enlargement of the EU.”
However, one of the authors of the report, Carmen González Enríquez, indicated during the event that, although “the internal political conflict could affect the image of Spain”, the surveys collected by the think tank (which will be presented in the near future) indicate that, “if there was an impact, it would be small.”
For this reason, and assuming that the confrontation with the opposition will probably focus more “on internal political issues” and that, “on major European issues, including the possibility of exploring a cessation of hostilities in Ukraine,” the National diplomacy should not be “too far from the positions of Germany and France”, Elcano researchers do not rule out a more optimistic scenario in which Spain, “as a State capable of leading the EU and a committed ally with Ukraine”, will have “a leading role”. in the definition of the European strategic agenda in 2024, where interest in Latin America as a region related to Europe also grows.” “In addition, being a Western country that has also condemned the actions of Hamas and the Israeli response in Gaza places it in charge of organizing a peace conference for the Middle East,” the study continues.
