Carlos Mora
Ecuadorian journalist, secretary general of EditoRed
Daniel Noboa, the quiet outsider, the businessman who defines himself as a moderate leftist, the -until recently- unknown assemblyman of a fledgling party, the low-profile son of a tycoon and famous politician of the country achieved the improbable, as he himself has acknowledged. He won the presidential elections against Luisa González, the candidate of the most structured political party with the greatest ambitions for power in Ecuador in the last 15 years: the so-called Citizen Revolution, which has been unable (or unwilling) to free itself from the tutelage and shadow of leader Rafael Correa, so loved by some and questioned by others.
The results at the end of the election day of this Sunday, October 15, 2023 indicate that Noboa obtained 52.12% of the valid votes and Gonzalez 47.88%.
Thinking well
As in the first round, the voting day took place in the midst of a peace that Ecuadorians would like to last all year. The Police Commander, Cesar Zapata, at midday on Sunday, gave a report on the day’s news that surprised him: there were no serious robberies, no shootings, no kidnappings, no hired killings, no bombs, no riots… none of the things that make the headlines of the news every day in a country plagued by drug trafficking and organized crime.
It was an exemplary peaceful day.
So much so that the defeated did not shout fraud nor did they call their supporters to demand recounts, nor did the winners call theirs to go and defend the votes.
A rare thing in Ecuador (which should not be so in any mature democracy): the defeated candidate congratulated the winner and even offered him the majority votes of her party in the Assembly to advance in a consensual path towards better days in the country.
A pacifist speech that even Correa, the politician not at all affable with his political contenders, retweeted it (or whatever they say now that Twitter is called X). A minimal gesture, certainly, considering that at least until 22:00 on Sunday he did not write any congratulations to Noboa, no call for unity. Nothing. Perhaps nothing more could be asked from someone who proclaimed with arrogance that his political project would last 300 years.
The majority of Ecuadorians once again made their position clear: they no longer support politicians who create polarization among citizens, they no longer support people who divide in order to win, those who feed politically by exacerbating the class struggle, those who make confrontation their way of governing. That no longer works. At least not in today’s Ecuador, which understands that it is already too much to have to deal with the fear of dying in the middle of the drug traffickers’ war to have to continue to put up with the self-serving fight of politicians who guard their posts and their freedom.
Thinking wrong
Undecided voters accounted for around 30% of the electorate before the second round. How did the candidates manage to convince them? It may be that the offers that appeared in the campaign for the runoff led to define many votes, although none of the most attractive offers that were advertised in this phase of the process were included in the official government plans of the two finalists.
However, it was clear that it was political marketing that defined the winner. It was not the best offer (not even the most demagogic) but the best advertising idea that consolidated a triumph and sentenced a defeat. It was not the calm and deep analysis of the best proposal or the best profile. It was not the balance of pros and cons. No. None of that. It was an emotional factor that defined the result.
In the last week of the campaign, Noboa’s team distributed throughout Ecuador a cardboard in which his life-size figure was printed. An enormous photograph of him, with his arms crossed, in a friendly attitude, informally dressed. People took that propaganda item home, to their jobs, to their bedrooms, to their parties, to the beach and to their social networks for free. People took it upon themselves to viralize the candidate’s plea to vote for him, with humor, with irreverence, with a sense of humorlessness and free of charge. In a creative and risky way, Noboa’s campaign achieved an incalculable number of promoters of his figure. An indisputable goal.
And thus, with that emotional charge more than rational, many undecided people defined for whom to vote, with the results that we already know.
It is not an exclusive matter of Ecuador. Scholars say it: people vote, especially, guided by their emotions. By factors that have nothing to do with rationality, analysis, meditation. That is the reality of democratic elections. There are already those who say that perhaps the day is not far off when, in order to evaluate candidates more conscientiously and make a more intelligent, less passionate choice, it would be better to entrust the cold analysis of the proposals and profiles of the candidates to an Artificial Intelligence capable of examining figures, calculating the consequences of proposals, verifying data, not forgetting facts of the public life of the candidate. Perhaps, then, there will no longer be an imperfect election and we will move on to a perfection that, certainly, we should not call democracy either: its etymology would no longer fit.
Thinking of Ecuador
Noboa must govern Ecuador for a year and a half, approximately. A country that has become hostage of drug trafficking, which has penetrated everything and only thinks of expanding. A country that is also hostage of its bad economic situation: a deficit of 5% of the GDP, an economic growth (1.5%) lower than initially projected for 2023 (2.9%), with a tax collection that will not reach the goals set for this year, with oil revenues lower than planned, with an increase in poverty, without improvements in terms of employment, with a growing debt.
The president-elect has, so far, shown himself to be pragmatic. He will have to use that quality to focus on no more than four key issues in his short term, issues that, moreover, must be connected. These may be security, investment, education and the consequences of the El Niño phenomenon.
His party will not have a majority in the Assembly. However, during the current government of Guillermo Lasso, this party has focused a good part of its actions on finding a way to solve the legal problems of its leaders, some of them already sentenced for corruption and others in litigation for such matters. So his help may be conditioned to these aspects.
Noboa will have very little time, so he will have to try not to engage in disputes with the Assembly, but to use, in particular, the laws and presidential powers he already has at hand to advance as quickly as possible in goals of national interest.
Especially, the new president should take advantage of the pacifist spirit of the majority of Ecuadorians, demonstrated in this election. He should take advantage of the incredible viralization of his image that he achieved with the idea of the cardboard with his life-size photo and, with that same spirit, involve the citizenry in the changes that are needed. But he has to demonstrate that just as he was able to be the successful cardboard candidate, he will be able to be the successful president of flesh and blood.
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