Rodrigo Gonçalves
Economist and Political Affairs Specialist
International relations are the macro stage of geostrategy and this is where much of the world chess has been played with the BRICS becoming players to be reckoned with.
The old alliances have been changed and have evolved greatly in line with the need for more economic power. Shortly before the great financial crisis in 2006, Brazil, Russia, India and China decided to formalise their cooperative relations, seeking to aggregate the strength of their huge population centres outside the US sphere of influence.
The acronym BRIC has a pragmatic origin and its creator is the English economist Jim O’Neill, of the financial group Goldman Sachs, who used the term to designate the group of emerging economies formed by Brazil, Russia, India and China. Later, with the entry of South Africa, it was renamed BRICS.
Now, 15 years later, the group of five has agreed to include six new members who have applied to join the club. They are Arabia, Iran, Egypt, Argentina, Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates.
These new entries take on the consolidation of an economic and political bloc that confronts the American giant and reinforce the general idea of the deterioration of these countries’ relations with the United States. The main sign of this is the entry of Saudi Arabia, which until then had had the United States as its great historical ally in the Middle East.
With the world witnessing a power struggle between China and the United States, a process of world division is approaching that should concern us and to which we should pay due attention.
In addition to the threats to comprehensive global stability, the BRICS, in these new moulds, consolidate a grouping of major oil producers, accounting for some 42% of global supply. They still represent more than 50% of the world’s population.
Excluding the United States, we thus have a power bloc that will have at its disposal mechanisms that can destabilise markets and influence, induce, manipulate or even control many of the economic and commercial decisions of several countries, promoting instability that is difficult to control.
The entry of the six new members practically doubles the share of world production of the new BRICS, contrary to the interests of the United States and its allies, and does not favour relations with the European Union, which is also highly conditioned.
This strategy of the BRICS is far from innocent and aims to create even more divisions between the two great economic and financial power blocs, the United States and China, placing Russia as a pivot and element of confrontation with the international community, leaving the European Union in a highly fragile situation with a war on its doorstep and a financial crisis that is difficult to manage.
On the other hand, it is enough to analyse the last few years of BRICS activity, especially since the start of the war in Ukraine, to realise that their intention is to fight against the global hegemony of the dollar, the currency widely used for world trade, and to strengthen their influence as the largest economic and trade bloc.
There is even a general incentive for the BRICS to engage in exploring ways to increase the use of their national currencies in order to weaken the dollar and take over some of the world’s trade.
The world is indeed changing and this is the time for tough decisions that in the EU space must be taken firmly. The EU’s main trading allies are the United States and the United Kingdom, and in this respect we must try to strengthen these alliances and give more muscle to the economic bloc in question without devaluing the economic and commercial strength of the European Union, which must also be constituted as an economic and commercial bloc of strengthened power.
However, the existing international order defended by the West, which was established after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of the Cold War, has since 2009 a threat with great geopolitical impact that has steadily increased its influence on a geo-economic and geopolitical scale, and will continue to do so in the near future.
This is the great challenge of this decade and Europe must become stronger, independent in areas such as energy, military sovereignty, technology production and innovation. While many are betting on the collapse of the euro in the face of trade wars between China and the United States, the European Union may have an opportunity here to strengthen itself as a large economic bloc and take advantage of this path that seems to be heading towards the emergence of a multipolar monetary system.
On the other hand, NATO must also see its weight strengthened, because behind the mask of the BRICS there is indeed a threat to world security and stability. Let us look at Russia’s attitude in Ukraine and let us look at the behaviour of China, India and Brazil within the UN, favouring the attack and occupation of a country with a free and autonomous democracy.
In the face of this threat, the path seems inevitable. In the geopolitical future, we will have two major alliances to play in the global chess game of the economy, international trade and military power. On the one hand, the Russia-China alliance and on the other hand the US-Europe alliance (including the UK).
It is now up to world leaders, and especially European leaders, to pick up on the signals and act faster than they have in the past to help the new geopolitical and economic realignment that is inevitable.
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