Rodrigo Gonçalves
Economist and Political Affairs Specialist
On 23 July we had general elections in Spain and the results were, all things considered, surprising. The People’s Party (PP) won, but fell far short of expectations of winning enough to guarantee the formation of a majority right-wing government, giving the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) the possibility of continuing to govern if it manages to secure a majority, which is difficult but possible.
With the final figures in a hurry, Spain seems to be heading towards a political impasse, as the figures show that both right-wing and left-wing parties are not in a position to form a new stable government.
The party led by the candidate Alberto Núñez Feijóo is unable to guarantee a majority for the investiture even with VOX and this leaves room for something unprecedented in Spain to happen. Feijoo may have to see Pedro Sánchez, once again, as the leader of a coalition government, even without winning the elections.
This is something that is unnatural in Spain, but it has already happened with the Socialists in Portugal, and it set a precedent that Pedro Sánchez can replicate.
The precedent was in 2015 when Pedro Passos Coelho, of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), won the elections without a majority and saw the defeated António Costa, of the Socialist Party (PS), form a parliamentary majority with the parties to his left, a majority that came to be nicknamed “geringonca”.
The Portuguese Socialist Party managed to pass a motion rejecting the programme of the 20th constitutional government of Passos Coelho and, within the Portuguese constitutional framework, but outside the norm and ethical rule of “whoever wins governs”, which has been maintained since the beginning of democracy in Portugal, managed to form a government and take office on 26 November 2015.
This may be the scenario that Spain will face in the short term. Although Sánchez’s Socialists finished second, together with their allied parties, they won more seats than the PP and VOX. The bloc that will probably be able to support Sánchez won 172 seats while Feijóo’s right-wing bloc only won 170.
With these data we surely have a lot of uncertainty on the way to Spain and all this may contaminate the European Union (EU) as well. We should not forget that Spain will have the responsibility of taking on the six-month rotating presidency of the EU.
Spain is currently the EU’s fourth largest economy and a political crisis in the country could affect the region’s economic stability, especially given its importance in sectors such as tourism, exports and other trade with EU members.
The impacts on the EU would depend on the nature, size and severity of the political crisis in Spain, but regardless of Spain’s internal reality, which today has a highly fractioned society, what seems to be happening is the birth of a new paradigm in Spanish democracy in which an absolute majority is essential.
There are several readings of these elections. Based on the reality that we have the PSOE, which governed until today with the extreme left, and the PP – now the winner – which seems to want to govern with the extreme right, the extremes were penalised by the electorate’s useful vote. In this way we saw the parties of the governmental arc (PSOE and PP) strengthened, with very close results, although the PP’s victory has a greater dimension.
But the main reading we make is the possibility of recreating the example of the Portuguese Socialist Party in 2015, with Spain, Europe and the world being able to assist Sánchez’s PSOE to govern, even after defeat, which would be unprecedented in Spanish democracy where until today “whoever wins governs”.
This reading is based on the obvious. Alberto Núñez Feijóo, the winner, could try to persuade smaller parties to support a PP-VOX coalition, but many seem reluctant to support the rise to power of the extreme right and this could complicate the construction of a stable solution for governing on the right.
Pedro Sánchez, the defeated party, has more bargaining options, and can still try to obtain a majority by maintaining the coalition with the far left and seeking potential allies, making concessions in exchange for their support to ensure a majority governing solution.
But even if Sánchez fails to pull off this unnatural act we have one certainty. If no candidate obtains a majority within two months of the first vote for prime minister, new elections must be held in Spain.
The future seems to be unpredictable and unstable for Spaniards, but beyond this uncertainty we may be witnessing a new cycle and seeing a new page written in the history of Spanish Democracy in which the title has a universal interpretation… “in democracy it is no longer enough to win elections”!
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