Andrea Chamorro González
Analyst at Fundación Alternativas and Africa and Middle East specialist
On 28 May 2023, Turkish voters went to the polls again for the second round of elections. On the same day and after an election day without major mishaps, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan emerged victorious. Although it took four days for the Supreme Electoral Court to confirm his victory, several presidents and heads of state quickly acknowledged his triumph. This marks the end of an election in which the opposition had hoped to dislodge the long-serving leader from power. The domestic political situation is dragging on complex problems, such as the economic crisis and the devaluation of the lira. At the same time, it is important to note that two major earthquakes occurred close to the first round of the elections, causing some 50,000 deaths, and the government was blamed for the fragility of the buildings.
In order to understand the outcome of these elections, it is of great importance to analyse the election campaigns. First of all, the charisma of both candidates must be taken into account, as in this the president has a greater advantage. One only has to look at his marathon speeches, in which, at most, he looks at the supporting papers a couple of times, creating a great impact on the audience. Candidate Kiliçdaroglu does not have the same charismatic potential, but his recorded speeches have become very popular on social media. However, he failed to attract new voters to his coalition, or to bring them into the anti-Erdogan logic that underpinned his electoral discourse.
At the same time, Erdogan had the advantage of having all state resources at his disposal. We are not only talking about controlling the narrative, as most of the media is directly or indirectly controlled by the government, but also about economic resources. In the campaign, the president offered free gas for a year, despite the fact that the country is not energy self-sufficient. These dynamics were denounced by the opposition candidate, who described the latest elections as “the most unfair in history”, but did not go so far as to denounce fraud. Another highlight of Erdogan’s election campaign was the numerous inaugurations of infrastructure and weapons, as well as the announcement of new gas discoveries in the Black Sea. The opposition candidate’s strength was the broad coalition of parties he represented, but after the results of the first round it became clear that there were gaps between the leaders of these parties.
The campaign generated a highly polarised discourse from both candidates. Kiliçdaroglu was characterised by his aggressiveness against Erdogan, and accentuated his hostility towards Syrian refugees. The CHP candidate had promised to send the expatriates back to their places of origin, and accused Erdogan of having done nothing to protect the borders. For his part, the president stepped up his anti-LGTB talk to lash out at the opposition, accusing them of belonging to the collective.
In the second round of the Turkish elections, only the two candidates with the highest number of votes will run, leaving the ultra-nationalist Sinan Ogan out of the running. As a result, he formulated a series of requirements to support one candidate or the other. In the end, he decided in favour of Erdogan, although given the results of the first round it would not have been crucial for him to win in the second round. Sinan Ogan had around 5 percent of the vote; just taking into account the ideological affinity it was already clear that there would be a shift towards Erdogan, who really only needed a very small push to win the presidency.
Two days after the results were confirmed, the president was sworn in and formed his cabinet. The new cabinet includes many new faces, occupying ministries that are strategic for the country’s governance, such as Economy, Foreign Ministry, Defence and Interior. The general profile of the new ministers is one of people with extensive experience in their field and in other state institutions. For example, the current foreign minister was head of the National Intelligence Organisation (MIT) since 2010, and had previously worked in the Prime Minister’s Office. On the other hand, there is the question of the president himself, as he will be 74 years old by the end of this term, the same age as Kiliçdaroglu, which is already an advanced age. This raises the question of whether it will be possible to see who will succeed Erdogan in this legislature. According to the law, he could not run for a third term, unless the parliament calls the elections and not the president. For the time being, it is too early to know what strategy he will follow.
Erdogan will remain in power for another five years, to the bewilderment of many. It was thought that the fragile economic situation would have caused major damage to his popularity, but this has turned out not to be the case. It can be predicted that during this time we can expect a consolidation of the model he has had in mind for Turkey and has been building since 2002. He is currently the person who has accumulated the most power in the country since its founder, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, and has shaped it in his own image and likeness, and plans to continue to do so.
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