The Diplomat
Spain will close 2022 as the sixteenth largest economy in the world, two steps down from last year’s position in the World Economic League, placing it one place behind Mexico, which becomes the largest Spanish-speaking economy in the world, according to forecasts by the Centre for Economic and Business Research (CEBR).
According to the British consultancy firm, the Aztec economy will remain in the same position throughout the entire projection horizon, which runs until 2037, except for 2027, when it will swap places with Spain, and then overtake the Spanish economy and both countries will be in the same positions in 15 years’ time as they are currently among the 191 economies analysed, reports Europa Press.
In the case of Spain, the CEBR anticipates that the annual rate of GDP growth will slow to an average of 1.7% between 2023 and 2027, while over the rest of the forecast horizon it predicts that economic growth will slow further, to an average of 1.5% per year.
At the global level, the consultancy highlights that the world economy will exceed the 100 trillion dollar (94 trillion euros) threshold for the first time in 2022 and predicts that by 2037 world GDP will reach 207 trillion dollars (195 trillion euros).
The authors warn that by the end of their projection horizon Europe will account for less than one-fifth (19.4%) of world GDP in dollar terms, compared with 21.9% expected in 2022 and 33.8% 15 years ago.
By contrast, the picture for East Asian economies is almost exactly the opposite, with the weight of these economies expected to almost double from 19.5% to 33.7% in the 30-year range to 2037.
The World Economic League maintains the United States at the top of the rankings in 2022, which will retain its privileged position at least until almost the end of the forecast horizon, when it will finally be overtaken by China, which has again seen the moment of the ‘sorpasso’ delayed.
Likewise, as a reflection of Europe’s progressive loss of weight in the world economy, if this year the Old Continent has Germany (4), the United Kingdom (6), France (7), Russia (9) and Italy (10) as its representatives for 2037, only Germany (5), the United Kingdom (6) and France (7) will remain in the top ten, after Italy falls to 12th place and Russia to 14th.
In contrast, India will move up from fifth in 2022 to third in 2037, while Japan will retain fourth place. Brazil will move up to eighth by 2037 from twelfth this year; South Korea will finish ninth, up from 13th in 2022; and Canada will drop to tenth in 2037 from eighth in 2022.
