Pedro González
Journalist
The Netanyahu page was not definitively turned, indeed it seems that it will have to be reread even more carefully now if possible. Five elections in less than four years have been necessary for the Likud leader to have outlined a bloc that this time will have a minimum advantage of 61 or 62 seats, out of the 120 that make up the Knesset, to develop a normal legislature, within the peculiarity of what this term means in Israel.
Barring unexpected last-minute upsets in the vote count, the Central Electoral Council will deliver the final results on 9 November, by virtue of which Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu will be in charge of forming a government that will necessarily reflect the radicalisation that has taken place in Israeli politics.
Itamar Ben Gvir, leader of Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) which, in coalition with Religious Zionism, provides Netanyahu with 15 deputies, will most likely sit in that Cabinet under a credo that can be summed up as the unceremonious annexation of all occupied territories; an iron fist with the Arab population inside and outside Israel; reinstatement of the death penalty for Palestinian terrorists and immunity from prosecution for the actions of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in their “counter-terrorist” operations.
Considered an ultra-nationalist, opposed to any solution with the Palestinians that does not involve Israel’s absolute rule and the expulsion of “disloyal Arabs”, Ben Gvir has even called for control of national security. Too much cake for Netanyahu, who will not, however, be able to dispatch him with a lesser portfolio. An admirer and supporter of Donald Trump, Ben Gvir’s rise has gone hand in hand with the collapse of other ultra-Orthodox formations, such as the Jewish Home, led by the short-lived Defence Minister Ayelet Shaked under Yair Lapid’s government.
Cancellation of reforms and a new judicial system
Religious Zionism and Jewish Power also have in their sights the reversal of the reforms, described as liberal, implemented by the governments of Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid. They also agree with Netanyahu on a reform of the judicial system, which in the case of the foreseeable Prime Minister would exonerate him once and for all from the four court cases still pending against him.
In this respect, the Israeli electorate seems to have joined the trend that is pushing down the value of honesty as a pillar of democracy, under the guise of greater efficiency in management. Thus, in barely a week, Brazil has opted for a Lula da Silva exonerated, not acquitted, of his corruption offences, while Israel, with all its complexities, has opted for a justice under investigation, with strong hints of guilt. And we have yet to see the return in the UK of a Boris Johnson pending a final verdict on his alleged lies to Parliament.
The explosion of Israeli ethno-nationalism has been spurred in no small measure by the growing violence that, since the summer, has pitted not only Israelis and Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank against each other, but also Jews and Israeli Arabs. The multiplication of incidents has exacerbated tensions and the latent hatred between Jews and Palestinians flares up at the slightest spark. The resulting climate is conducive to extremism and glorifies those who, like Ben Gvir, advocate the most radical solutions.
Despite his supposed “softness”, incumbent Prime Minister Yair Lapid has personally come out of the elections well, having improved by four seats on his 17 from the previous elections, although clearly insufficient, along with the 37 of his allies, to disturb the virtual majority of Netanyahu’s bloc with the ultra-Orthodox nationalists.
The old fox of Israeli politics will once again have the opportunity to play a decisive role in the country’s foreign policy. First, vis-à-vis its unwavering ally, the United States, once next Tuesday’s mid-term elections determine whether the Republicans and their leader, Donald Trump, regain much of their lost power. And, closely linked to this, what side Israel, with Netanyahu at the helm, will finally take in the war in Ukraine, where Jerusalem’s ambiguity towards President Vladimir Putin, the undisputed aggressor and unleasher of a war whose effects the whole world is suffering, is becoming increasingly incomprehensible to the international community.
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