Crédito y Caución expects Vietnam’s GDP to expand by 7.7%, driven by growth in industrial production of over 19% and exports of around 16%.
This Asian economy was one of the few in the world to avoid economic contraction in 2020. With a vaccination rate of close to 82%, its growth has proved resilient to the supply chain disruptions caused by China’s confinements.
In this context, the latest report released by the credit insurer forecasts that investments will increase by 12% and private consumption by around 7.2%. In 2023, the foreseeable weakness of external demand in the euro zone and the United States or the slowdown in China will affect the evolution of GDP, which will slow down to 6.3%.
Although inflationary pressures have increased, inflation is expected to remain below 4% in 2022 and 2023. Vietnam is maintaining stimulus measures worth $15.4 billion for the period 2022-2023 to sustain the growth rebound. With a deficit of 4% of GDP in 2022, public debt will climb to 40% of GDP, remaining at manageable levels.