Augusto Manzanal Ciancaglini
Geopolitical analyst
Amidst the chorus of official Russian propaganda led by Vladimir Putin, a bucket of cold realism from a veteran voice, retired Colonel Mikhail Khodarionok, surprisingly decides to break the dynamic and expresses his concern: “The main shortcoming of our politico-military position is that we are in geopolitical solitude and, although we don’t want to admit it, practically the whole world is against us, and we have to get out of this situation”.
Others like Chechnya’s Ramzan Kadyrov, while acknowledging some mistakes at first, compensate for doubts by upping the ante; the enemies are no longer Hitler’s heirs, but Lucifer’s very own acolytes, and he proclaims: “We are going to liberate Ukraine from these demons”.
Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, is the loudspeaker for this shift in Russian mood through isolation, victimhood and toughness.
From a military point of view, the initial breakthrough has been yet another display of typical Russian sacrifice, but an unconscious one; such a tank quagmire seems somewhat overdone as a diversionary manoeuvre, even for the Russians.
Troop morale and Western assistance in the form of weapons such as drones and Javelin missile launchers have given Ukraine the strength to resist, although the Russians have then mounted a more effective war by targeting the Dombass with artillery to overwhelm.
The figure of Volodymir Zelensky and his media hype, as well as the embodied confirmation that Ukraine is sliding inexorably through the spectacle of the West, adds weight to empathy for an invader that has heroically defended itself by suffering massacres such as Bucha. Meanwhile, Russia’s image has sunk as low as its flagship, the Moskva.
At the economic level, this tarnished image is becoming more tangible. In addition to Russia’s own undermining by sanctions and declining energy sales to Europe, Ukraine’s export constraints have led to a global food crisis in an environment of rising inflation.
For its part, the US, rather bisected on the inside, maintains its omnipotent presence on the outside: it takes the invasion of Ukraine as a proxy war, continues to provoke China, and refreshes its leadership in Europe. One of the supposed motives for the invasion was to avoid an additional 1576 km of NATO border, the consequences of which with Finland and Sweden joining will be 1340 km and Kaliningrad surrounded by a more Atlantic Baltic Sea.
Even if Russia were to conquer Ukraine or its southern fringe, including Transnistria, the benefits might not outweigh the harm in the short to medium term. Ultimately, however, Moscow’s grand purpose, come what may, is simply to regain some geopolitical relevance, even if it is relatively solitary.
The horsemen have always been galloping around the world, and lately they do not let up: take off your mask to put on your helmet and find an empty plate. In any case, this does not usher in an apocalyptic era, as long as the Russian Z-series invasion does not lead to the start of the third modern Punic War.
Either way, both a negotiation, via Turkey, and a chronic war could spill over as a convenient lie between Eastern propaganda hysteria and Western confusion: Moscow maintains the illusion of being a global power in a multipolar world and Washington convinces itself that it can tame anyone who challenges its unchallenged hegemony. This is how this tepid cold war will continue to roll on without descending into all-out war.
© All rights reserved
