The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) forecasts that GDP will fall by 0.2% in the third quarter of the year quarter-on-quarter, which would correspond to a year-on-year rate in the period of 3.4%. According to the latest update of the real-time gross domestic product (GDP) forecasting model (MIPred) published by AIReF, the level of activity would be 2.7 percentage points lower than in the fourth quarter of 2019, before the pandemic.
In this new update of the MIPred forecast, AIReF has included a new indicator, total imports of goods for the month of June, although it specifies that at the moment it only has 57.1% of the indicators for July and no additional data for August or September. The indicator will be updated as new data is published.
The model will be updated in the coming weeks with the indicators that will be published in early September for the month of August, such as electricity consumption, the monthly average number of workers registered with Social Security, the PMI Services Index and the total sales of large companies, in the latter case with data for the month of July.
For 2022 as a whole, AIReF forecasts growth of 4.2% for the Spanish economy, one tenth of a point less than in its previous estimates in April (4.3%), and puts the average inflation rate for the year at 7.8%.