FAES Analysis Group
Russia and China are two countries that have been quick to express their willingness to establish diplomatic relations with the Taliban. Neither have their embassies in Kabul been closed, nor have their citizens residing in Afghanistan been evacuated. For Moscow and Beijing, the ideal scenario would be one in which both the Taliban and the Americans lose. The Taliban lose because they fear that their government will be permissive of all kinds of paramilitary and Islamic terrorist groups, which will inevitably destabilize the Central Asian region, where both countries have economic interests. Moreover, they share one concern: the US withdrawal from Afghanistan means for the US more resources and a sharper focus on its strategic rivalries with China and Russia, which Washington defines as the greatest threats to its security and defense.
Russia has set in motion its officialist disinformation and propaganda machine: the main lesson Afghans should take away from the US withdrawal is that Americans always do the same thing, use people to work for them and help them, but then abandon them and hand them over to the enemy. Those messages are more aimed at the neighboring Ukrainian population and the pro-Western Russians themselves than at the Afghans. Despite the propaganda, the Kremlin is not confident that Washington will abandon all its allies and stop supporting pro-democratic forces in the countries of the post-Soviet space where Russia aspires to exert its influence. To Russian citizens, the U.S. withdrawal reminds them of the Soviet Union’s failure in the war in Afghanistan (1979-1989), which was one of the main causes of the collapse of the communist system. However, its withdrawal, compared to that of the US, was much more orderly.
Moscow believes that the US has abandoned its less realistic goals: to be the global policeman and the trumpeter of universal democracy. But despite the humiliation suffered, it strengthens Washington, which from now on will focus on pursuing the objective it considers fundamental to its security and defense, namely the containment of Russia and China.
The fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban will worsen Russia’s security: the influx of Islamist extremists and terrorists into Central Asia, in Russia’s immediate vicinity, has long been of concern to the Kremlin.
Chinese propaganda about the “defeat of the US and the West” turns to highlighting the malign consequences and the loss of confidence in the US of its Afghan allies, whom it has abandoned, and of the Europeans, with whom it has not consented to withdraw.
Two issues have troubled China since the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban. The first is that the country could easily become a breeding ground for a disturbing variety of paramilitary groups, because it has many economic interests (infrastructure investments) in the region, especially in Pakistan and other Central Asian countries. Beijing will make a limited diplomatic engagement with the Taliban – it will fulfill the promise of major investments and provide short-term assistance to the new government – but little else, as Afghanistan has been the grave of great empires (the British Empire, the Soviet Empire and now the US failed there) and it seems wise to avoid falling into the same pit. Therefore, China is preparing for a greater confrontation with the US in the Indian and Pacific region, the current scene of their most intense rivalry.
Iran has increased its contacts with the Taliban in the wake of the US withdrawal in search of some kind of agreement to secure peace on its border. Iran needs a modus vivendi with the Taliban to curb migration flows and the trafficking of drugs and arms through its territory. Although the Iranian population does not sympathize with the Taliban, it detests Westerners-particularly Americans-and maintains interests and economic ties with the Taliban that have grown because of Western economic sanctions.
Russia, China and Iran rejoice in the U.S. defeat, but remain concerned about the stability of their own countries and the region, which will undoubtedly be affected by the power the Taliban have gained in Afghanistan. However, despite the debacle in Afghanistan, it should not be forgotten that the United States is still the power with the most military bases and military capacity in the world, and that it has more allies than Russia, China and Iran combined.
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