Augusto Manzanal Ciancaglini
Political scientist
The 20th anniversary of the September 11 attacks, together with the chaotic exit of the United States from Afghanistan, forces the media and its consumers to calm down about the docile absolute concepts that are dismissed in the form of headlines. Whoever wishes to understand the intricate codes of geopolitics, mainly in its imperial trappings, will have to go far back in his studies. There he might find Gaius Claudius Glabrus or Publius Quintilius Varus.
Osama Bin Laden has symbolized, like Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, Saddam Hussein or Muammar Gaddafi, the blind stubbornness of immolation only for his own decade of historical fame: with the hornet’s nest in turmoil, the umma remains equally or more divided, Al Qaeda has become entangled to the microscopic and the Taliban are obliged to inject their regime with some pragmatism. Meanwhile, the various forms of ISIS, an enemy of Al Qaeda and the Taliban, violently flicker on and off indiscriminately puncturing the map of stability and support for global jihad.
In the war on terror, the United States, amid the crushing and confusing tunnels through crushing victories and public humiliations, over the transformation of enemy dictatorships like Iraq, Libya, Syria or Sudan into failed states, exposes its malleable invulnerability, which is twisting toward greater technological development deployed on top of less energy dependence and increased strength of its strategic rivals. All this gives air to its continued dominance of the seas; from there it will continue to try to regulate the valve that constantly pumps a containment division.
The concrete objectives of that enterprise in Afghanistan have been achieved and it is relying on the massive support of its citizens to withdraw in an unavoidable tactical withdrawal in order to focus on areas of greater relevance at present, leaving in its wake a complex scenario for its adversaries. Only Pakistan will be able to be satisfied: on the other hand, it is an invitation to greater involvement for India, a close bad memory for Russia and a bittersweet prospect for China, considering the alliance between the Taliban and the Turkestan Islamic Party seeking Sinkiang’s independence from China.
Moreover, if the situation stabilizes under the Taliban’s reins, economic opportunities lie ahead, such as U.S. oil company Chevron’s move to bring natural gas from Turkmenistan to China, which would loosen the energy tie between Beijing and Moscow.
After twenty years the only radical change can be seen in the shift from the deafening cry against the war to the ubiquitous murmur of indignation at the withdrawal. At the same time, the world continues to transform continuously amid contradictions that pour out various kinds of simultaneous triumphs and defeats for all concerned, be they a handful of mountain warriors, international terrorist networks, iron-fisted dictatorships, regional powers or the sole superpower.
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