Nacho Sánchez Amor
Member of the European Parliament
During the years 2003-2014, Latin America experienced a certain virtuous circle of economic growth and political stability. During this “commodity boom”, as it is often called, emerging economies demanded a consumption of raw materials that benefited Latin America considerably. This phenomenon was one of the elements that injected a bonanza and the development of the middle class in the region. However, the virtuous period, with the ghost of inequality lurking, soon turned into a new “lost decade”. The 2017-2019 electoral triennium uncovered political, social and economic challenges that still plague Latin America today: frustrated politics, entrenched inequality, and a regressive and botched development model.
Polarization and fragmentation, volatility, disaffection towards the political class in institutions, deep inequality and corruption are becoming a structural framework in Latin America. One consequence of this is a string of massive and continuous protests, to the point of becoming an epiphenomenon of the, to paraphrase Manuel Alcántara, “fatigued democracies” of the region. A foreseeable consequence will be short political cycles, volatile governments without a majority seeking an unattainable consensus and, as a consequence, a punishment vote that will put personalist, populist and anti-establishment candidates on the stage.
And, to top it all, the difficult management of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has opened space for some perverse uses of exceptional measures; has eroded rights and freedoms; has affected political customs and habits; and has led to clientelistic practices to gain vote loyalty, but at the cost of dragging polarization and discredit for politics.
In this situation of crossed uncertainties, Latin America has begun an intense cycle of 17 presidential elections that will not end until 2024. During this same year, 5 general elections (presidential and legislative) will take place in Ecuador, Peru, Chile, Nicaragua and Honduras. Legislative elections will also be held in El Salvador, Mexico and Argentina, sub-national elections in Bolivia and 6 municipal/regional elections, as well as the Constituent Convention in Chile on April 11.
On the one hand, Ecuador held presidential elections on February 7, showing a high fragmentation and polarization reflected in the dichotomy of correismo vs. anticorreismo. On the other hand, the two most immediate elections will be the general elections in Peru and Chile, both on April 11, in which the constituents in charge of drafting the new Constitutions will be elected.
Peru consolidates a constant that can be seen in different political and electoral systems in Latin America: a marked fragmentation (an oversupply of 22 presidential candidates), high volatility, a pronounced political disaffection and an enormous lack of confidence in the institutions, partly due to the most recent institutional crisis (3 presidents in 8 days) which is added to those that have been happening since the year 2000.
For its part, Chile will elect the 155 members of a Constituent Convention that will be in charge of drafting the new constitution. This is the result of the demand for a new Chilean social pact following mass protests linked to the level of inequality and corruption in the country, which erupted after an increase in the Santiago subway fare.
In order to assist Latin American democracies in this complex period, the EU should analyze this situation and intensify bi-regional political dialogue, especially by promoting the creation of a Transatlantic Observatory for Democracy and Electoral Processes, in collaboration with the OAS. Such an entity could address the structural challenges and problems of the region, devoting special attention to its electoral processes and the new risks they face, there as everywhere else in the world, from disinformation to foreign interference.
The EU should consequently accept any invitation it receives from our sister region to join in regional or domestic electoral observation and help prevent the frequent tensions of the immediate post-electoral moments. Because helping to get out of crises is the best way to prevent future ones.
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