Enrique Miguel Sánchez Motos
Senior Civil Servant
Spain has had a bad time with Rajoy’s legacy and the same thing happens to Casado. In 2019 the PP will have to choose between being a ‘second-class’ Ciudadanos or a strong center right with the support of Vox. In Andalusia, Casado has managed to pour oil on troubled water and the PP has taken a selfie with Vox, which, in a generous return, has chosen to renounce the challenge that would have led to new elections. Andalusia and Spain have won that first bid, but the political projects have not finished. Most likely, in 2019, there will be important elections. It is a year to do politics and to see what each party proposes. Political key matters will be the historical memory, the regional harmonization, the pro-independence movement, the economy and the confusing gender issue. No party can avoid them.
The PSOE will be marked by the attitude of Sanchez, who time ago supported implementation of article 155 but today rejects. The PP will have to face the legacy of Rajoy in this issue. If Casado allows himself to be beaten by the old ‘rajoyist’ guard, he will have very hard times and Vox will encroach his territory in a really intense way. PP Convention, yesterday January 18, puts it in evidence. PP can not continue exalting Rajoy and pretend to implement a long and lasting 155. One thing or another. The best thing for Casado would be to make his mind up: if he leaves the job to the party’s establishment, runs the risk of placing himself before the electorate in no man’s land. That had an electoral cost in Andalusia and will have it in Murcia, Castilla, Valencia, Catalonia, etc.
How can Casado face ‘rajoyism’, without disqualifying Rajoy? He must insists tirelessly on his political plan for the regions (155, harmonization, language, flag, market unity, etc). Feijóo asked in the Convention “not to make the mistake of leaving the flag and language to nationalisms”. But beware, the great mistake that has been made is not to leave the regional languages in the hands of the nationalists but to abandon the Spanish language, so that the nationalists marginalize it, fine it and try to eliminate it. Casado must decide if he and his team speak up or remain silent about all these issues. The next elections will assess his option and give birth to a new PP, strong or residual.
Meanwhile Vox, as seen in its recent meeting in Zaragoza, knows how to present its program in a firm and focused way, as has done so far, and will go on advancing because it brings a new vitality and the firmness Spain needs. The nonsense of the ‘ultra-right’ disqualification is not accompanied by a serious and specific criticism of its programmatic points. Are we, or not, in favor of the Historical Memory, of the regional inequality, of the regional embassies, of the lack of control of immigration, etc? Hopefully the parties, and also the analysts, have the courage to go out on a limb. Nevertheless, probably only an electoral turnaround will put things in place.
For its part, Ciudadanos has taken decidedly the risk in Andalusia. The Villegas’ side has won over the Arrimadas sector but, let’s be very careful!, Manuel Valls option may fail due to his mistake when ferociously disqualified Vox. Centralist France is nothing like the broken ‘State of Autonomies’. Without eliminating the disintegrating elements, among them Civil War-ism and Companys, Valls can find difficulties. The attitude of Ciudadanos and their inclination towards the corrupt Andalusian PSOE, and therefore to Sánchez, is incompatible with a firm confrontation with the pro-independence cancer. It is absurd to try to apply the article 155 and form an alliance with the current PSOE to do it. Or does Rivera have in mind, as he did until almost October 1, 2017, to discourage a future government of Spain of the 155 implementation?
Spain needs all the constitutionalist parties to act within the Constitution and propose any measure they deem appropriate to be approved, or rejected, by constitutional procedures. Make no mistake, do not disqualify with the use of the terms ultra-right or ultra-left. The only red line is the one that separates the Constitutionalists from the coup plotters. Long live Spain!
21/01/2019. © All rights reserved