In the elections of 25 May, 47.6% of the Catalonian people participated, 20% less than in 2012.
Rosa Paz. Madrid
The victory in Catalonia of the Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC, in its Catalan acronym) in the European elections last 25 May complicates even more the already confusing political scene of the Catalonian community whose government, most of the representatives in the autonomous parliament and a great part of its citizens claim: “the right to decide” on its separation from Spain –between 75 and 90 per cent according to different polls–.
Part of those political forces and also a sector of the population who asks for a referendum assure, however, that they would not vote in favour of the independence but in favour of being part of Spain although having different conditions to those they have at the moment. They would ask for a better financing system, for the exclusive competences in the linguistic area and the recognition in the Constitution of Catalonia’s “singularity”, among other things.
On 25 May, ERC, a completely pro-independence party, won the elections for the first time in the 35 years that have passed since the recovery of the democracy in Spain. ERC is a republican party, left-wing and Catalonian, but of all these features, the one predominating in its political action is the last one, its objective to achieve Catalonia’s independence. That is the reason why its victory on 25 May, when 10% more of Catalonians than in the European elections of 2009 went to the polls, intensifies the mysteries about the immediate future of Catalonia, especially about the possibility of celebrating the referendum, called for 9 November with a double question: “Do you want Catalonia to become a State? Yes or not?”. And in affirmative case: “Do you want that State to be independent? Yes or not?”.
The possibility of celebrating that referendum only in the Catalonian area is not contemplated in the Spanish legislation, which means, in case of being officially called, the Government of Mariano Rajoy will appeal to the Constitutional Court and this will ban its celebration. Therefore, the other hypothesis being considered is that, due to the impossibility of celebrating the referendum, Catalonia’s government calls autonomous elections, but of plebiscitary character, with the intention of getting the secessionist parliamentary majority that unilaterally claims the independence. These are the alternatives that, with more or less intensity, consider the political forces added to the pro-independence process, which have currently a big parliamentary majority –although not sufficient– as a consequence, especially, of the fragmentation of the unionist sector and, in particular, of the electoral collapse of the socialists of the PSC-PSOE –who got 45% of the votes in the general elections of 2008 and a bit more of 14% in the European elections– and of the fact that the PP has never been a relevant party in Catalonia -9.8% of the votes in the recent European elections–.
CIU’s pro-independence turn
Convergència i Unió (CiU) is the coalition of the moderate nationalism that has governed Catalonia for 23 years, with the charismatic Jordi Pujol as their leader, who took part in the constitutional agreement of 1978 after Franco’s dictatorship and alternately supported the governments of the PSOE of Felipe González and the PP of José María Aznar. After seven years of tripartite government among socialists (PSC), former communists (ICV) and ERC (2003-2010), CiU recovered power in Catalonia in 2010 in an environment irritated by the sentence of the Constitutional Court which annulled some articles of the Statute of autonomy reformed two years ago. Pressure in the streets and the lack of tune of the Catalonian president, Artur mas, with the Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, took CiU to join –with the mediation of significant conflicts– the pro-independence theories since the celebration of the autonomous elections on 25 November 2012, barely a year and a half ago, when Artur Mas brought the elections forward with the intention of confirming his leadership “with an extraordinary majority” and the promise of turning Catalonia into a “new State of the European Union”.
He did not get that extraordinary majority he asked for and he even lost 12 of the seats he previously had, but he kept his pro-independence bet and joined ERC that, still far away from CiU, increased 11 seats. The only connection linking these two nationalist political parties is the objective of achieving the independence. In fact, Esquerra supports Artur Mas, but it also controls that he does not go out of the established course. That is how he was able, in exchange for the autonomous budget, to set a date for the referendum and the double question. Now the mystery is whether, after his victory in the European elections, he will force CiU to maintain the referendum, even if it is illegal, or not.
Until now, the Catalonian Government keeps a double speech. In public, they maintain that the referendum will be celebrated no matter what, but more and more voices of the Executive, the leaders of Unió and many relevant figures of Convergència –sometimes even Artur Mas himself– affirm that the referendum will only be celebrated if it has the Government and the Spanish parliament’s consent, which as of today seems to be impossible. However, ERC bets on the legal or illegal referendum. Therefore, there can be a confrontation between the two parties at that point. That is why, in Catalonian political media think that when the Constitutional Court bans the referendum, Artur Mas will call these plebiscite elections in order to release tension and continue, in his escape forward, with the unilateral proclamation of independence. There are also doubts about this hypothesis of bringing the elections forward, because the polls point out a sorpasso of ERC and the elections of 25 May certify that, which makes many leaders of CiU to have no confidence in this round that could leave them after Esquerra.
Nevertheless, one might remember, that in the elections of 25 May, 47.6% of the Catalonian people participated, 20% less than in the autonomous elections of 25 November 2012. So the result in the European elections is product of the mobilization of the pro-independence campaigners –and even so, the sum of the votes of ERC and CiU is 45%– whereas the unionist groups attended scattered and most of their voters opted for abstention. If the announcement with plebiscitary vocation would mobilize the voters in favour of Catalonia remaining in Spain, the result could be different.
The causes for the disaffection
There are several fundamental arguments that take so many Catalonians to opt for independence. One of them is simple and it affects part of the population, which is that they do not feel Spanish. In addition to that reason, we can find the economic argument, common, by the way, to all the rich regions of Europe –Veneto, Bavaria, Flanders, etc– and which consists on arguing that if they did not have to contribute with the money of their taxes to the solidarity of other Spanish regions, Catalonia would not be in crisis. The third great argument is that of dislike. The conviction that the rest of Spain does not understand nor loves Catalonia. Some controversy with the use of the Catalonian language and the collection of signatures in the rest of Spain promoted by the PP against the Statute are usually stated as base of that appreciation.
The feeling of pillaging and of the affront are very spread among the Catalonian population, even among those who do not bet on the break up with Spain and the pro-independence campaigners are using them to bring those citizens closer to their positions.
The solutions
In political, social, and especially business sectors of Catalonia, this situation, which seems to have no exit, is very worrying. That is why, influential businessmen and bankers try to convince the Government of Mariano Rajoy of the need of making a proposal that allows CiU to get out of the secessionist road, adducing that great part of the leaders in this group are looking for a project to hold on to in order to renounce their pro-independence bet and that this is what most of the Catalonian people want. Likewise, the PSOE thinks that the solution to the Catalonian problem is to tackle a federal reform of the Constitution which allows updating the constitutional agreement with the citizens of Catalonia. But, whereas Artur Mas follows his pro-independence roadmap without blinking, Mariano Rajoy has not outlined, at least for now, an offer trying to stop the process.
There are analysts in Catalonia who maintain that it will be the European Union the one to force Rajoy to react in order to avoid that independence puts the stability of the euro in risk, which could be affected by Catalonia’s departure from the EU and the European monetary system and which would also cause a difficult economic situation for Spain. But this possibility seems more like a show for the gallery.