Javier Fernández Arribas
Director of Atalayar
The control of the Red Sea has turned into a strategic object of great magnitude for the countries fighting for supremacy in this tumultuous region. Its value is evident, because millions of tons of oil and gas move in its waters. These are basic products for the economies of producing countries in the area, the monarchies of the Gulf and Iran, and consumer countries, especially the European.
The Suez Canal in the north and that of Bab el Mandeb in the south, in the horn of Africa, with serious damage caused by the war in Yemen, are vital points for the navigation of supertankers.
The United Arab Emirates have significantly increased their economic influence and their military role in the entire area to guarantee transit. On one hand, this is the most active ally with Saudi Arabia in the war of Yemen against the Houthis supported by the regime of the Ayatullah. On the other hand, it supports Egypt in its fight against terrorist groups in the Sinai and has established military bases in Eritrea and Somalia. Its most powerful opponents are, as well as the Iranian Shia, Turkey and Qatar.
The Turkish military expansion has provoked much mistrust and protests of Saudis and Egyptians. Their agreements with Sudan with the cession of the island of Suakin, caused certain agitation in a delicate chess game where Ethiopia also enhances its pieces with the third Army in Africa and the construction of a big dam in the Nile that has created certain tension, especially in Egypt.
Emirates and Turkey prove in this area, which includes Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan, their determination to act militarily if needed to achieve the control of the political and economic power, although many experts do not believe a war between these neighboring countries of the River Nile would be possible, because their economies could not bear a conflict of these characteristics with unpredictable consequences.
The third wheel in the area is Qatar, isolated by the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, led by Saudi Arabia with the support of Emirates and Egypt for the past year, for the supposed relations with terrorist groups. Each country makes its geopolitical bets, with the most interesting alliances, which has increased tension in the region in an especially delicate moment after eight years of war in Syria and Iraq.
03/07/2018. This article has been published by Atalayar.
